Wednesday, March 07, 2012

A Scenario On What Israelis Could Expect An After Iran strike - And Why It's Dangerously Wrong


Today in YNET, Yair Lapid has an op-ed (todah, Snoopy at Simply Jews) that presents an interesting look on what Israel might expect after an Iran strike:

“Let’s assume we bomb in Iran,” the senior source told me. “What do you think will happen the next day?

I repeated what everyone else has been saying: We can expect blood, fire and smoke; hundreds of missiles will be fired at Israel.

“That’s not the real scenario,” he said. “The problem is not that they would fire 300 missiles at us in two days, but rather, that they would do the opposite – fire only five or six missiles each month, but keep doing it for two years.”

And what would happen then? I asked.

“Israel’s airspace would be closed down,” the senior source said. “Airplanes will not be taking off, ships carrying goods will not be arriving at Israel’s ports, life here would grind to a halt, and our economy would be paralyzed.”

A few problem with Lapid's scenario. One,if nothing is done, if Israel does nothing, the missiles are eventually going to come anyway, and they're going to be nuclear and chemical weapons. Unlike what our 'intelligence chief' James Clapper says, all the evidence shows that assuming the Iranians are rational actors is extremely foolish.

Two, if the IDF hits the oil fields and oil infrastructure ( as I described in my article last week), the Iranians are going to be far too occupied with their internal problems to waste much time and money trying to hit Israel...assuming they still even have the capacity after the raid.They're far more likely to try and attack US, Saudi and UAE targets and shut down the Persian Gulf, in which case I trust the US Navy to make them very sorry they did.

Three, the chief danger to Israel is from Hezbollah and Hamas and 'soft' Jewish targets overseas. I spelled out in last week's submission why there's a decent chance that in terms of missiles Hamas and Hezbollah's response will be mainly confined to rhetoric, especially when it comes to Hamas. If there is such a response, the Israelis need todeal with it ruthlessly, even to the point of tactical nukes - especially since they're going to be labeled as Nazis and warmongers by the usual suspects anyway. Old American proverb: "I'd rather be judged by 12 than carried by 6."

Four, as you may have noticed,when dealing with the Muslim mindset, it's frequently a case of at your feet or at your throat. A strong, decisive Israeli response against Iran would do much to dissuade others from repeating the Mullah's error and could even be a major deterrent to illegal proliferation and an impetus for peace.

Five, if Iran actually does launch missiles at Israel, again a full on, disproportionate response would certainly make Iran or other bad actors in the region think twice about doing it again. Since neither Israel or any other country would be able to exist under the conditions Lapid describes, such a response would not only be imperative but entirely justified.

Make no mistake, Israel and the West are going to reap a certain amount of cost for allowing Iran to develop its rogue nuclear program and terrorist proxies as much as it has. But the cost is going to be infinitely greater the longer it's delayed...especially for Israel.

"If you will not fight for the right when you can easily win without bloodshed, if you will not fight when your victory will be sure and not too costly, you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a small chance of survival. There may even be a worse case: you may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves."

- Sir Winston Churchill, 1938

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