The prime
minister may believe his offer of Palestinian sovereignty in the West Bank is a
'win-win' for Israel, but he is gravely mistaken.
By Moshe Arens,
Haaretz.com
We may not know
at the moment the exact status of the indirect negotiations between Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, taking
place by courtesy of John Kerry, but listening to Netanyahu's rhetoric we
can discern where he is trying to take us. Nobody can object to his
readiness to enter into negotiations with Abbas without preconditions, even
though it is clear to all that Abbas does not speak for and cannot make
commitments for all of the Palestinians. That is, after all, a traditional
and reasonable Israeli position - let's sit down and talk, and maybe we'll find
that we can reach an agreement. But behind this simple, almost simple-minded position
there now hide implicit Israeli concessions which are becoming more explicit
by the day.
When Netanyahu
repeats, almost daily, "We don't want a bi-national state," or in
other words we don't want to add any more Arabs to the State of Israel, and
that he believes in the two-state solution and that he is prepared to share
the land west of the Jordan River with the Palestinians, it is not only
Abbas who understands that Netanyahu is prepared to turn all, or almost all, of
Judea and Samaria over to some kind of Palestinian sovereignty.
This
negotiating position may look like a win-win situation to our prime minister.
If, despite this generous offer, Abbas refuses to enter negotiations, or after
entering negotiations refuses to come to an agreement, Israel will
presumably come out of this American-chaperoned process squeaky-clean,
blameless.
Moreover, it
will have been proved that there is really no partner for negotiations with the
Palestinians. Like then-Prime Minister Ehud Barak, who 13 years ago offered
then-Palestinian President Yasser Arafat almost everything, including the
Temple Mount, and on being refused declared proudly that he had now proved that
there was really nobody to talk to on the Palestinian side. Presumably, it will
be another victory for Israeli PR.
And if, believe
it or not, Abbas is prepared to accept the Israeli offer, Israel will have
saved itself from becoming a "binational" state, will have removed
the stigma of being an "occupier," or a "colonial power,"
as Justice Minister Tzipi Livni says, and will be applauded by the whole
"international community." So it's "win-win."
Either way we
come out smelling like a rose.
But not so
fast. If Abbas remains obstinate, despite the Israeli enticement and American
pressure, will this really be a net gain for Israel? Will the offer of Judea
and Samaria rejected by Abbas then just vanish, like a concession written on
ice that melts with the first heat wave, disappearing forever? Not on your
life. What was offered first by Barak, then by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and
now by Netanyahu, will be written in stone and require Herculean efforts in the
future to erase. A net loss.
If he agrees,
what then? A solution to the Palestinian problem, an end to the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict and no further demands by the Palestinians on
Israel - neither for the right of return nor for additional territory - in
other words, peace? Not by a long shot.
Just listen to
Netanyahu speaking at Mount Herzl on the 109th anniversary of the death of
Theodor Herzl, and listen closely: "[W]e do not want a bi-national country.
However, let no one delude themselves into thinking that if we reach an
agreement with the Palestinians it would erase the wild slander against the
Jewish state."
What does that
mean? An agreement with Abbas won't be the end of the conflict and it won't be
peace. And there will be additional demands made on Israel and there will be
rockets falling on Israel - but the heart of the Land of Israel, Judea and
Samaria, will have been abandoned by Israel.
Whether Abbas
agrees or not, either way it will be a loss. It's not a win-win situation at
all - it's lose-lose.
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