I know that many who will be
receiving this are celebrating Thanksgiving today and I do not wish to impose
unduly on that celebration. And yet... and yet...
I entitled this posting "grim,"
because this is very much the mood of the nation here. From the right and
from the left there is criticism of the ceasefire agreement concluded yesterday.
Somewhere in this country there must be someone who thinks this was a good move,
but I have yet to encounter that person. Unless there is a huge shift in
the situation, it seems that Netanyahu and his Likud party may suffer in
the coming election for what has happened.
After all the talk of Cast Lead --
the last operation inside of Gaza -- having been terminated too soon, the sense
is that this is precisely what happened again here. Yes, we did damage to
Hamas -- took out some military leaders and many rockets and missiles as well as
infrastructure. But in the end there was no definitive resolution.
As I understand it, while many, if
not most, long range missiles and rockets were destroyed, Hamas is still in
possession of some 6,000 medium range rockets.
~~~~~~~~~~
Far more
seriously, author Mike Evans, writing in the JPost today
says:
"Also of great concern to the
Israelis is a report that a freighter is enroute from Bandar Abbas [Iran] to
Gaza with a payload of 220 short-range and 50 Fajr 5 missiles with larger
warheads and greater range than those Hamas possessed at the beginning of
Operation Pillar of Defense.
"The cargo on the freighter would
replace the dwindling stockpile of missiles fired into Israel since
November 10. To cover its tracks, the ship has changed names and ownership
several times since its launch....
On the South Pacific Island of
Tuvala, its name was changed to the Cargo Star and hoisted a Tuvalu
flag.
"According to sources, four
Sudanese cargo ships departed the Port of Sudan recently for an assignation with
the Cargo Star. The missiles would then be transferred to the
other vessels at sea. It is believed that the ships will either put into port in
Sudan or rendezvous with a fleet of Egyptian fishing boats. From there,
the arms would be transported to Egypt, and then to Gaza by way of the tunnel
system between the two countries. While at sea, the Cargo Star
has been shadowed by two Iranian warships."
~~~~~~~~~~
Evans' point in writing this piece
is reflected in its title: "It's About Tehran, not Gaza." And the
fact that the world is ignoring this is part of what's very wrong with the
current situation.
Hamas attacked Israel at the
behest of Iran. Israel is at the front line in the battle with
Iran. We are fighting the fight on behalf of the Western world,
which gladly ties our hands as we do so.
~~~~~~~~~~
Of course, there's a great deal
more wrong with the situation, as well. Galling, actually:
There is lip service to Israel's
right to self defense, but in the end there was a sort of equity established
between Israel and Hamas in the way the ceasefire agreement was worded.
It's not a question of eliminating a terror entity and all that it represents --
a terror entity that challenges the only democracy in the Middle East.
It's, rather, a situation in which both, equally, have to stop attacks
against the other. And both have the same option to complain to Egypt about
infractions of the other.
No mention of the smuggling of
weapons, which have absolutely no purpose other than eventual attacks on Israel.
And no recourse, within the
agreement, for Israel to defend herself if there are (which there certainly will
be) Hamas violations. Although, as it is worded, smuggling is NOT a
violation.
~~~~~~~~~~
This is the first time that there
has been a written ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. Previously, it
was simply a matter of informal quiet -- when they stopped, we stopped.
The idea then was to let them know that if they started again, we would as well.
We haven't always followed through
on this option when we should have. But it WAS an option. We had sovereignty, in
terms of right to act. Now, with this agreement, as least on paper, we no
longer have that option. If we respond to a violation -- launching of rockets or
the attempt to do so -- with our own attack, then we have violated the
agreement.
~~~~~~~~~~
Of course, ultimately, that's
precisely what we will have to do.
Last night on his FaceBook
page, Netanyahu put this up: "...it may be necessary for us to conduct a major and harsh military
campaign [against Hamas]." And if it became necessary, he said, Israel
would follow through.
It may become
necessary?
~~~~~~~~~~
Today I picked up some news
comments that bewildered and unsettled me: If there is quiet for a while,
the reports indicated, then there will be negotiations to work out further
details. This is apparently a reference to item (d) in the agreement,
which reads: "Other matters as may be requested shall be
addressed."
Uh oh! Have we left
ourselves open to further pressure and demands?
It's very clear that Hamas wants
Israel to abandon or loosen the sea blockade on Gaza.
~~~~~~~~~~
In line with this, it's possible
that there will be talk about Egypt working to stop the smuggling. I can
only reiterate yet again that this should not be taken seriously -- for Egypt
will not take it seriously. There will be some announcements, some
photo-ops, and that will be the end of it.
One way that Egypt has handled
this issue in the past is by denying that there is any smuggling. You
might want to see some examples of this, here: http://imra.org.il/story.php3?id=59160
What is more, statements -- in at
least one instance made privately -- have come from a key member of the
government that makes it clear that there is no genuine government
expectation that the smuggling of rockets and missiles will be stopped.
Nor do I, from what I've heard,
have any serious expectation that the government will respond to the
presence of new rockets in Gaza, as long as they are not being
launched.
~~~~~~~~~~
Item (c) of the agreement, which
talks about opening of passages, also includes this phrase: "and refraining
from restricting residents free movement, and targeting residents in border
areas." Haggai Huberman, of Arutz Sheva points out today that Israel had
been maintaining a security strip of up to 300 meters in width inside Gaza along
the border -- preventing Gazans from freely moving in that area so as to prevent
harm to IDF soldiers on the other side of the border.
This practice has now been
relinquished.
~~~~~~~~~~
We may have some answers as
to why Prime Minister Netanyahu made the decision he did regarding the ground
invasion of Gaza:
According to Channel 2 today, as
reported by Arutz Sheva, "Mossad Head Tamir Pardo, who went to Cairo as Israel's
representative in the contacts that preceded the ceasefire, was told in messages from Cairo and from Washington
that the peaceful relations between Israel, Jordan and Egypt were at risk [if
there were to be a ground invasion]."
Absorb the full import of this,
please. It's not just that Egypt made the threat, it's that
Washington also carried it.
Subsequently, Obama, via Clinton,
leaned on Morsi to play the role of negotiator and mediator -- to assume a part
in the ceasefire process. This was accomplished, almost certainly,
according to my very best information, because of Morsi's need for the billions
he seeks from Obama. And after Morsi agreed, both Obama and Clinton
praised him as being a key figure in the area, as a new time begins, blah blah
blah.
We hear that Obama defended
Israel's right to defend herself. At any rate, gave lip service to
this. But if he were truly concerned with Israel's security, he would
have told Morsi that if he attempted to cancel Egypt's peace treaty with
Israel, there would be no money. That is, he could have used the promise
of money as the carrot to help Israel rather than simply using it to
get Morsi on board in a ceasefire process that actually inhibited
Israel.
Obama, who played along, is just
as responsible as Morsi.
Truly, I hope everyone
reading this absorbs the enormous import of what we're seeing
here. And I hope that every American who sees this is furious, and
understands precisely who the president of the US is.
~~~~~~~~~~
Absorb the import, please, of
Obama selecting as the man to arbitrate -- when there are violations of the
ceasefire agreement by Hamas -- someone who has already threatened Israel with
possible war. It's so incredible, it's difficult to absorb. But
absorb it we all must.
~~~~~~~~~~
I do note here that while Morsi's
threat may have caused Netanyahu to blink with regard to a ground operation,
that still doesn't explain why he signed on to the ceasefire agreement.
There is still more to the story, I am certain.
~~~~~~~~~~
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Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner,
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