I don't know exactly how I should
refer to the behavior of the six nations that are "negotiating" with Iran.
But "stupid" doesn't quite cut it for me.
The two-day talks in Moscow, just
completed, were an abysmal failure that went no where. French Foreign
Minister Laurent Fabius referred to "the large gap between the two sides."
According to a report in
Haaretz, "A Western diplomat who asked to remain anonymous said that
one major obstacle revealed by the Moscow talks relates to the underground
facility for uranium enrichment in Fordo, near the city of Qum. According to the
diplomat, the Iranians refused to discuss the Fordo plant at all."
What does the international
community imagine is going on there? And do they not know that there is
reason to suspect that Iran may be operating covert enrichment sites as
well?
But what did the six nations
do? Consent to a low level technical meeting in early July, thereby
allowing Iran more time to pursue their nuclear development. And if you
think a couple of weeks won't matter, consider the report by the French news
agency AFP yesterday, that US officials believe Iran will be able to
produce enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon within four months,
~~~~~~~~~~
The EU's Catherine Ashton, who
heads the P + 1 delegation at the negotiations, says that there is currently an
"indefinite pause" in talks, which will be resumed only if the
technical meeting yields some common ground. If it does not, the
"plan" is to proceed by levying tougher sanctions against Iran to force
them to halt.
What no one acknowledges is that
all the sanctions so far have had not an iota of effect on Iran's nuclear
development. In fact, they have motivated the Iranians to move even
faster. There is no reason to think more sanctions will have a different
effect -- they just "bite the bullet" and keep going. And since it takes time to
put new sanctions in place, and time until they start to really kick in,
Iran may well have achieved its goal of having that material for a bomb by
then.
~~~~~~~~~~
I must add here that the Iranian
navy has just announced intention to build more war ships, including
missile-launching frigates and destroyers.
And there is activity at the
Parchin military complex in Iran that suggests clean-up work that will mask
activity there if and when inspections are done.
~~~~~~~~~~
The elephant in the room --
elephant, what elephant? -- is the need to stop Iran via military force or at
least a credible threat thereof. (It really is a case not of negotiations
between equal parties, with compromise, but of the international community
saying, cease and desist or you're history.) Right now the American statement
that "all options are on the table" impresses the Iranians as totally
unserious.
This would be Obama's job, for the
US is the nation best equipped militarily to accomplish it. But Obama has no intention of going
there, it would seem -- Panetta's latest statement in this regard not
withstanding.
~~~~~~~~~~
The "beyond stupid" is thinking
that achieving an agreement with Iran that is a compromise would be a good
thing. The trick is to find a way to avoid military confrontation, as
if that confrontation and not Iran's ultimate achievement of nuclear capability
would be the worst thing imaginable.
~~~~~~~~~~
Vice Premier Shaul Mofaz was in
the US yesterday, meeting with members of Congress, Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton and others. The prime focus was on Iran, as I understand it. He
pushed for crippling sanctions but also spoke of the need for a credible
military option, which, he says, should be led by the US.
~~~~~~~~~~
Before I move on to what else
Mofaz said, I want to touch upon a topic highly relevant to the issue of what
the US will do with regard to Iran:
What we are seeing is that in a
variety of contexts the up-coming presidential election will be critical,
both for the US -- of course! -- and more broadly for Israel and the free
world.
To that end, it's extremely
important that Israelis who are also American citizens vote in this
election.
People imagine that it will make
no difference, but this is not the case: Some elections have turned on very small numbers, and
absentee ballots are counted.
In order to vote, you must be
registered. If you were registered in 2008, that is not
sufficient. You must register again.
A new -- non-profit, non-partisan
-- organization called iVoteIsrael is currently working overtime to make
registration easy for you.
See www.ivoteisrael.com in order to
complete the registration process.
And see www.ivoteisrael.wordpress.com for information regarding
Israelis voting in the US election and the positions of the
candidates.
If you are an American-Israeli,
please, do register and vote. If you have relatives who are, please pass
this information to them.
~~~~~~~~~~
iVoteIsrael cannot and will not
say this, as it is strictly non-partisan. But I can, and do regularly:
Obama has got to
go!
~~~~~~~~~~
Returning now to Mofaz:
While in the US, he also touched upon the issue of negotiations with the
PA. As he is considered to be to the left of Netanyahu, the Obama
administration is hopeful that the prospects of this happening successfully
-- at least with regard to an interim agreement -- are now more
viable.
Can I say it again in this
context? Beyond stupid. The chances of an agreement between Israel
and the PA/PLO is nil.
This morning, by telephone from
Washington, Mofaz gave an interview to Israel Radio. He said, in part, "I
believe that there is an opportunity to restart negotiations. I have a firm
basis for believing this will happen in the near future."
What he's talking about are
negotiations "without preconditions."
But I say, "uh oh!" What
sort of arrangements is he cooking up? Please note that the PLO's Saeb
Erekat is also in Washington for talks with US officials.
~~~~~~~~~~
Apparently, as part of the deal
that brought Kadima into the coalition, Mofaz was given the "peace
negotiations" portfolio, so to speak. That could only mollify the US, which is
none too fond of Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, and certainly pleased
Mofaz, who stands for "negotiations" in a way that Lieberman does not.
There is an inherent conflict in
having done this, however, as it impinges upon Lieberman's
responsibilities, although it is not clear that he particularly cares about
this. Lieberman made a statement
recently with regard to negotiations that I would like to cite here. He
said that as long as Abbas heads the PA there will be no successful
negotiations.
This is absolutely correct, but he
doesn't carry it far enough.
Precisely the same thing was
said about Arafat: he's a terrorist, he will never make peace -- we cannot
proceed with genuine negotiations until he's gone. Well, Arafat is long gone, Abbas took his
place, and here we are. There is no reason to think that Abbas's successor
will be more amenable to peace negotiations than Abbas is.
The mistake in reasoning lies in
fingering the man and not the party and the entire system. The PLO never
intended to make peace with Israel and arrive at a genuine "two state
solution." What is more, the region has radicalized in recent years, and
taken the PLO/PA along with it. Remember the on-going (off again, on again)
negotiations between the PA and Hamas.
If anything, Abbas's successor is
likely to be more radical, less peace-oriented, than he is.
It's time we got real and said it
like it is.
~~~~~~~~~~
Matters have not cooled in our
south, as rockets continue to be launched from Gaza. And there is no question at this point about
Hamas involvement. At present some 13 Israelis have been
hurt.
Egypt -- this is the military
regime -- is making efforts to achieve a ceasefire, but it hasn't held. As
in the past Hamas advances a "you stop first and then we will" scenario.
~~~~~~~~~~
©
Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner,
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