Night Watch
11/16/2012
China: Update. The 18th National Congress
of the Communist Party of China concluded on 14 November after the
Congress elected a new Central Committee and a new Central Commission
for Discipline Inspection.
Comment: NightWatch will report at greater
length as details warrant. The two most impressive themes that emerged
from the early speeches were that corruption is a threat to the survival
of the party and possibly the communist state itself and that the new
leadership will have no latitude to compromise the communist political
leadership.
Political reform means measures to ease social tension and
increase participation within the communist system. Put another way,
free market economics with greater individual entrepreneurship will not
lead to Western-style democracy or a multiparty system.
Jordan: For a second day, Jordanians hurled
stones at riot police and chanted slogans against the King in most major
cities of Jordan for a second day because of increased fuel prices,
including gasoline and propane, as the result of Tuesday's announcement
that the government must reduce the subsidy for these essentials.
Propane is used for heating and cooking. One protestor was killed, 14
were injured and 35 protestors were arrested during the two day
protests.
Government officials explained the subsidy
reduction was critical and overdue because of Jordan's poor economic
conditions, resulting in a $3 billion debt. Security sources claimed the
Muslim Brotherhood was responsible for the demonstrations. Most
reporters and activists claimed these were flash demonstrations, totally
spontaneous and not influenced by Islamists or political parties. A
University of Jordan professor claimed, "This is the beginning of the
Jordanian Spring."
Comment: Changes to the subsidies for and
availability of heating and cooking fuel are two of the four most common
sparks for internal upheavals that lead to government overthrows.
International lenders, such as the World Bank and the International
Monetary Fund, almost always advise governments to cut subsidies as part
of the recommended package of measures to get control of national
finances. Thus governments can become the agents of their own
instability.
Despite its best efforts to minimize public
protests, including a compensation package of annual payments for poor
families, the Jordanian government's action appears to have started a
process that threatens fundamental political change. Economic issues,
such as rising fuel prices, were the initial causes of protests in all
the so-called Arab Spring countries.
Unions and professional groups, such as
teachers, were important participants in the early days of the Arab
Spring uprisings. Teachers went on strike in Jordan and unions are
calling for a two-hour nationwide strike on Sunday. Nevertheless,
activists and Islamists eventually hijacked the movements in Tunisia,
Egypt, and Libya and have emerged as leaders in much of the Syrian
opposition.
The claim of spontaneity and political purity
is irrelevant in light of how events evolved in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia,
Yemen and Syria. The Brotherhood protested in public and pictures of the
King were defaced or burned.
NightWatch has been expecting and has
predicted that Islamists would target the Arab monarchies in the coming
year. That process appears to have begun early. NightWatch does not
accept for the purposes of warning that the protests were spontaneous.
Cuts in subsidies have been discussed in Jordan or tested since at least
September, when protests also occurred that forced the government to
rescind the changes. The Government and its opposition have been ready
for this move for months.
The government is not in immediate danger, but
the demonstrations will recur. Once Arab Spring-style demonstrations
begin, the outcome of that process is now well established. Three of the
strongest Arab governments proved unable to stop it.
Israel-Hamas: After several weeks of rising
tension and steadily increasing rocket attacks from the Gaza Strip into
southern Israel, Israeli combat aircraft struck back today in a fairly
complex air operation to take out leaders of Hamas and other Palestinian
fighting groups operating in Gaza and to destroy rocket sites,
according to multiple Israeli press services. The Defense Forces
released video of the precision air attack that killed Ahmed al-Jabari, a
leader of Hamas' military wing, and his son in their vehicle.
The Jerusalem Post reported that
the Israel Defense Forces air attacks hit over 20 underground
long-range rocket sites in Gaza that belong to Hamas and the Palestinian
Islamic Jihad. Some of the leadership decapitation air attacks missed
the targets. An IDF spokesman said that Gaza is a "forward Iranian base"
and that there are columns of smoke visible around Gaza.
Some 50 rockets were fired into Israel,
including at Beersheba, Ashdod, Eshkol Regional Council, Ashkelon Coast
Regional Council and Shaar Hanegev Regional Council. The rockets reached
as far as Dimona. Hamas leaders vowed revenge, announced a state of
emergency in Gaza and evacuated its security buildings.
Israel prepares for escalation. The Israeli
cabinet gave preliminary authorization to mobilize military reserves if
necessary for an air assault against the Gaza Strip, according to a
statement from Prime Minister Netanyahu's office. Israel Defense Forces
sent an Order 8, or full mobilization order, to soldiers of the Home
Front Command. They also reportedly decided to move some divisions south
for a possible ground offensive in Gaza. The Foreign Ministry initiated
emergency mode and announced that the situation room will be manned at
all times.
Comment: Israel once again is applying its
doctrine of asymmetrical retaliation against the rocket attacks,
responding with overwhelming force and a video release intended to show
that Hamas leaders are never safe. Having lost the lobbying campaign to
enlist US support for and participation in an attack against Iranian
nuclear facilities, Israel struck at Iran through its proxy, Hamas. That
appears to be the significance of the IDF spokesman's remark about
Iran. If Hezbollah provokes Israel to support Hamas, IDF attacks into
southern Lebanon may be expected.
IDF ground incursions into Gaza have done lots
of damage, but have had mixed results and no lasting effects. The
government has taken some preliminary steps that enable a ground
operation but it is not yet committed to it, except conditionally.
Actual mobilization of reservists and movement of ground force divisions
towards Gaza entail enormous political and economic costs and take
time, up to a week. They will be the best indicators that the decision
to undertake a substantial ground operation has been made. Thus, further
escalation can be avoided, but probably not this week.
There are multiple layers of strategic
maneuvering associated with this Israeli action, including implications
for US policy, for Egypt which recalled its ambassador on the 14th, and
for the Syrian crisis. Details are still emerging on those issues and
they will be analyzed as they become clearer.
Europe: Workers in
several, mostly southern European countries staged protests against
increased unemployment and government austerity measures. One news
service reported strikes or demonstrations in 22 countries. The worst
were in Spain
Spain's General
Workers' Union said a nationwide work stoppage -- the second this year
-- was being observed by nearly all workers in the automobile, energy,
shipbuilding and constructions industries. The Spanish strike shut down
most schools and while hospitals operated with a skeleton staff. Health
and education have both suffered serious spending cutbacks and increased
moves toward privatization.
In Portugal, the second general strike in
eight months stranded commuters because of the railroad workers' strike.
The Lisbon subway shut down. Some 200 flights to and from Portugal -
about half the daily average - were canceled. Hospitals provided only
minimum services in Portugal, and municipal trash was left uncollected
overnight.
In Belgium, a 24-hour rail stoppage and
scattered strikes through the south of the nation disrupted daily life.
Both the Thalys and Eurostar high-speed rail services that connect
Brussels with London and Paris were disrupted.
In Italy, thousands protested in Rome, Milan,
Naples and nearly two dozen other cities. Police clashed with
protestors, but injuries were limited.
Comment: The occurrence of widespread civil
disorder in the middle of the work week is strong indicator or
coordination and of unrest that could lead to sustained internal
instability. One European economist pointed out that the demonstrations
are enormously expensive to the unions and to the national economies and
worsen debt problems.
Heretofore, most demonstrations took place on weekends, except in Greece. None were coordinated across international boundaries.
End of NightWatch ###
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