Not sure where we're going,
but...
Signs in Syria right now suggest
either an ultimate Assad victory -- which is what Minister of Strategic Affairs
Yuval Steinitz is suggesting: http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Steinitz-Assad-may-prevail-in-Syrias-civil-war-316031 --
or a dividing of the country with Assad's Alawites in control of a
portion of the country (and Sunnis and Kurds likely dividing up the
rest).
I wrote last about Syrian
encroachment towards Quneitra and Israel's border. Two things have
evolved in this context.
First, Israel sent a warning to
Assad not to move tanks into the demilitarized zone between Israel and Syria
that was established in 1974, after the Yom Kippur War. Assad sent a
message back, via a third party, that his troops were there only to go after
rebels. He had no intention of attacking Israel and asked that Israel not
respond.
This, then, remains Assad's
position: he has no desire to tangle with Israel when he's still deeply immersed
in fighting the civil war. This caution, of course, does not prevent him
from saber rattling, so that he also warns that of a "strategic response" to
Israel and yesterday, according to the Lebanese paper, Al-Akhbar, he said he is serious about
opening up a Golan front. ,
~~~~~~~~~~
What has also happened, is
that the UN force in that demilitarized zone -- the UN Disengagement
Observer Force, UNDOF -- is falling apart. Austria has decided to pull out
its 380 troops, the single largest contingent in the force, and UN Secretary
General Ban is scrambling to find replacements.
Prime Minister Netanyahu took
this opportunity to make the point, at Sunday's Cabinet meeting, that Israel
must rely on herself and cannot depend on international troops for
security.
But we really don't have to
consider this situation for the point to be made: This is a given, in light of a
long history of failures of UN troops. The most egregious situation, in my
opinion, involved UNIFIL -- the United Nations Interim Force
in Lebanon, which was reinforced in 2006, when the war with Hezbollah
ended. According to UN Security Council Resolution 1701, this force was
supposed to prevent the rearming of Hezbollah via armaments smuggled from
Syria.
Today Hezbollah has more rockets,
and better, than before the war. I remember reading a report in which
an officer with UNIFIL said they weren't seeing any reinforcements coming across
the border from Syria. But then he also indicated that there were no missions
sent out at night. Duhh. You think just maybe that's when the smuggling
took place? The motto for these troops seems to be "Look nice and avoid
danger." Or perhaps, "Pretend to be doing the job, but favor Arab states
when it's possible."
~~~~~~~~~~
National Security Advisor Maj.
Gen. (res.) Ya'akov Amidror has written a briefing for the JCPA on "The Risks of
Foreign Peace Keeping Forces in the West Bank":
"UNIFIL in
southern Lebanon is more
prone to intervene against Israeli self-defense operations than against acts of aggression by Hezbollah."
Credit:
TimesofIsrael
~~~~~~~~~~
Netanyahu referred to
UNDOF now to emphasize that Israel will never rely on international
forces: Kerry, looking for ways to restart the "peace process," recently
proposed that perhaps international forces might replace Israeli forces in
the Jordan Valley, if a state were to be established. Nothing doing,
he's saying -- and he will raise this issue with Kerry in the
future.
~~~~~~~~~~
But Kerry, it has now been
announced, will not be coming here this week, as had been planned.
Some sources are saying that he's
remaining in Washington to participate in high level talks on Syria (about
which, more below).
While other sources are indicating
that he wants to give Abbas more time to drop its pre-conditions for
negotiations.
~~~~~~~~~~
Those conditions are familiar to
all of us: Freezing all building beyond the Green Line, acknowledging the '67
line as the basis for negotiations, etc.
Netanyahu calls preconditions an
"impassable obstacle."
But this doesn't deter our "peace
partners." The PLO just renewed its call for "right of return" -- to
which Israel has responded that this is contrary to the whole notion of "two
states for two people," which would mean "refugees" going to the Palestinian
state.
And there's more, this time from
Jabil Rajoub -- former head of the West Bank Security Forces under Arafat, and
currently a member of Fatah Central Committee and chairman of the Palestinian
Football (Soccer) Association. In an interview on an Arab channel,
regarding an upcoming visit to the area by the famous Barcelona
Football Club, he was asked if the team would also visit the "occupied"
lands.
His
response:
"They are
coming to the occupied lands. All of Palestine
- from the [Jordan] river to the [Mediterranean]
sea [i.e., all of Israel] - it's all
occupied."
Palestinian Media Watch picked
this up.
http://www.palwatch.org/main.aspx?fi=157&doc_id=9153
Kerry is even dimmer than I already think he is, if he returns to this area any time soon in an attempt to get those talks moving.
Kerry is even dimmer than I already think he is, if he returns to this area any time soon in an attempt to get those talks moving.
~~~~~~~~~~
As to the demand for a building
freeze...
Netanyahu has now said that
construction in communities in Judea and Samaria will continue, "and
continues today...we need to realize what is going on around us. We have to be
smart about it, not just correct. Settlement in the blocs wouldn't
substantively change the ability to reach an agreement, the real question
is whether or not there is a will to recognize the Jewish
State."
And indeed, the Israeli Central
Bureau of Statistics figures show housing starts in Judea and
Samaria rose significantly in the first three months of 2013 compared to
the same period last year,
~~~~~~~~~~
However...
Yesterday, Israel Army
Radio, drawing on data from the Housing and Construction Ministry, reported
that since the beginning of 2013 not one apartment has been marketed beyond
the Green Line in Jerusalem. Israel Lands
Administration sources indicated that the Prime Minister's Office
was directly delaying marketing of plots for housing in eastern Jerusalem.
To this, Avigdor Lieberman, head of Yisrael Beitenu and chair of
the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, responded:
"One should view this as a
temporary hiatus. We have an interest in Kerry succeeding. You don't always
have to be right; you can also be smart."
His observation that "you don't
always have to be right; you can also be smart," is too close to Netanyahu's "we
have to be smart about it, not just correct," to be a coincidence. Enough
said, here.
This information is not really
news -- we knew it. What I wonder about is the dynamics of a situation in
which building in a portion of our united -- never again to be divided --
capital is frozen by Netanyahu, while he crows about building that is going on
in Judea and Samaria.
Maybe I'm looking for logic when
there isn't any. Maybe it's just that Kerry whispered in Netanyahu's ear
that this is what might have the strongest impact on Abbas.
~~~~~~~~~~
Now as to Syria, and US policy
there. There had been talk about enforcing a no-fly zone, and that was
rejected. Then it was decided that rebels would be "vetted" -- to rule out
the more radical elements -- and "lethal" armaments that would help them to
take down the Assad regime would be provided to them.
Today, however, we're hearing that
an immediate policy assessment is being called for because the rebel
movement has become increasingly fragmented. One problem, then is that
it's close to impossible to weed out the radicals and provide assistance
with any assurance that it will go only to relatively secular, moderate rebels
-- or to identify the rebel group with the strength that might allow them to
succeed.
In addition, the fragmentation has
weakened the rebels. The American administration is alarmed by the turning point
in the civil war, which means that even if they determine to whom to
send the weapons, it may be too late. Having taken Quasyr, Assad is now
projecting a "major offensive" in the coming days, with the goal of fully
taking Aleppo, Syria's largest city, it is currently held by a
mix of government loyalists and different, Some 5,000 Hezbollah fighters
have now surrounded the city.
There is an expressed US concern
about supply routes to get the weapons in, and time for training so they can be
effectively used.
Anthony Cordesman, of the Center
for Strategic and International Studies, is cited by the JPost as saying, "Assad
has established a relatively secure corridor along the Lebanese border...When
you start actually drawing the map, you see what rebel-held really means, and
it's very sketchy.
~~~~~~~~~~
Senator John McCain (R-AZ) has
accused the Obama administration of "fiddling while Syria burns." And
indeed, indecisiveness is the mark of this administration. On Syria, Obama
missed the boat.
~~~~~~~~~~
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Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner,
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