Officially, Israel isn't talking.
But in this case there is no mystery as to "who done it." Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning, the Israeli Air Force struck twice.
First, it hit a convey headed
for Lebanon that carried anti-aircraft missiles. This highly sophisticated
and portable weaponry was something that Nasrallah of Hezbollah had coveted; it
would have changed the equation with regard to Israel's freedom of movement in
the area -- as when we eventually do go to war with Hezbollah.
So, hurray for us. We must
not, we cannot, sit still as the threats to us multiply. While the
Syrian weapons of mass destruction (gas, chemical) are of major concern, there
is more going on. As Assad tumbles towards collapse, he's become more
inclined to turn weapons from his arsenal over to Hezbollah. The Syrian
border has essentially been quiet since 1973 -- Assad has not utilized his
weaponry against Israel directly. But Hezbollah -- an Iranian/Syrian proxy
-- has and will undoubtedly attempt to do so again.
~~~~~~~~~~
According to foreign press
reports, the convoy had left from the Syrian town of Zabadani and was headed to
the Lebanese village of An Nabi Shit; it was attacked from Syrian air
space, before it crossed the border.
The weaponry was identified
as Russian-made SA-17 anti-aircraft missiles (pictured).
Credit:
YNet
~~~~~~~~~~
Tzachi Hanegbi, former chair of
the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, had this to say about
the situation, on Army Radio:
"Israel has
always said that if sophisticated weapons coming from Iran, North Korea and
Russia fell into the hands of Hezbollah, it would cross a red line.
"Israel's
preference would be if a Western entity would control these weapons
systems, But because it appears the world is not prepared to do what was
done in Libya or other places, then Israel finds itself like it has many
times in the past facing a dilemma that only it knows how to respond
to. Even if there are reports about pinpoint operations, these
are not significant solutions to the threat itself because we are talking about
very substantial capabilities that could reach Hezbollah." (Emphasis
added)
~~~~~~~~~~
It is highly
unlikely that Hanegbi spoke without official sanction -- in fact, what he
has done is deliver an official message unofficially. His words are good
ones. He makes clear that Israel will do what Israel must do -- something
our neighbors badly need to understand. In this neighborhood, a tough
stance is the most secure stance.
I hasten to point
out here that Obama, who gave his word that he has Israel's back, is
sitting on his hands at the moment. "Israel's preference would be if a
Western entity would control these weapons systems." However...
Hanegbi suggests, you will note, that a more
substantial operation may be required.
As Danny Yatom,
former Mossad head, said to YNet yesterday, "Some things are casus
belli."
~~~~~~~~~~
The second
target Israel hit, and demolished, was an installation in Jamraya near
Damascus that the Syrian government identified as a "research facility."
Research? Well, actually, one of the "scientific research centers aimed at
raising the level of resistance and self-defense," according to the Syrian
government. The facility -- which apparently had a major role within
Syrian's weaponry system -- has been identified as likely a chemical weapons
manufacturing and storage site.
~~~~~~~~~~
US
officials, speaking anonymously, have indicated that the US, during
meetings held at the Pentagon in the last few days, was told by Israel that the
attack would be taking place.
Reportedly,
there were 12 Israeli fighter jets involved, operating in three different
sorties of four jets each. The planes entered Lebanese airspace and
crossed over to Syria flying low just north of Mount Hermon (which is on the
Golan in Israel).
Credit: Boeing Israel
~~~~~~~~~~
Not
surprisingly, the Syrians made a great deal more noise about Israel hitting
their "research facility" than about the convoy. To protest the hit on the
convoy is to public acknowledge transfer of weapons to
Hezbollah.
Both the
Russians and Hezbollah have protested the hit on the convoy however.
Hezbollah referred to what had happened as "barbaric aggression" by Israel that
requires world condemnation. (One must retain a sense of the ironic when
reading such words.) While Russia is talking about "unprovoked attacks" that
"violate the UN charter." And now Iran has gotten into the act, making
diverse threats against Israel. A lot of words.
~~~~~~~~~~
Will either
Hezbollah or Syria retaliate? It's possible, certainly, and tension is
high on both sides of the border. But the betting is that there will be no
retaliation now, as Assad is up to his eye-balls fighting the rebels who are
taking him down, and Hezbollah is invested in helping him. What is more,
things did not go well for Hezbollah in its last war with Israel, and Nasrallah
is going to think twice about incurring the ire of the Lebanese population
again.
My own opinion,
not offered lightly, is that we'll handle what we must handle. What we
absolutely cannot do is sit still as Hezbollah attempts to strengthen. We
have to be pro-active here.
Will there be war
eventually? One way or the other, it's almost certainly coming.
~~~~~~~~~~
Meanwhile, the
International Atomic Energy Commission has received a letter from the Atomic
Energy Organization of Iran, stating that it would be installing new, more
efficient centrifuges in its plant near Natanz. This will enable Iran
to enrich uranium more quickly and, says Mark Fitzpatrick, of the International
Institute for Strategic Studies think tank, could be "a most unfortunate
game changer," depending on how many new centrifuges are installed..
"If Iran
introduces them in a large scale, the timeline for being able to produce fissile
material for nuclear weapons would be significantly reduced."
Is Obama planning
on having a talk with the Iranians about this, or what?
~~~~~~~~~~
What has been of
interest to me in the last 24 hours or so is the silence that has ensued with
regard to the explosion, such as it was, at Fordow. With all of the
conflicting reports, I know that information had come out indicating that
Israeli intelligence sources confirmed that something happened there. And
if these reports are reliable, then, indeed, something happened. What we will
ever know about this, with certainty, is another story.
But one thing is
quite clear. Whatever the success in setting back Iran's nuclear program at
Fordow may have been, it obviously didn't put them out of business,
as Natanz is still in operation.
~~~~~~~~~~
The ludicrous
state of the world, and what passes for diplomacy these days, was brought home
to me when I read that UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon appealed to Syria
yesterday "to stop the killing...stop the violence."
That'll do
it. Assad is probably thinking of calling a halt to his war against the
insurgents as we speak, in response to this plea. You think?
This was going to
be a segue into other material related to the UN, just as
ludicrous, but of a more serious nature. But I'm going to table it for
next time, as it requires an analysis of the perverse and faulty (and indeed
severely maliced) thinking that is involved.
~~~~~~~~~~
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Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner,
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