Ron Nachman was a founder of the
city of Ariel in 1978, when a group of dedicated pioneers, with the blessing of
the government, set up the first tents. A member of Likud, he later gave
up a career in the Knesset to become Ariel's first mayor, and held that title
until last week, when he passed away after a long battle with cancer. His
funeral was today.
Credit: AP:/Moti
Milrod
Nachman's dedication to developing
the land of Samaria -- and to the city of Ariel -- was well known in
Israel. He is being mourned by many. The Yesha Council today saluted
him as: "a Zionist settlement pioneer in his body and soul and an
unstoppable builder of the Land of Israel."
~~~~~~~~~~
Well, two more days until Israel's
election. Wish I had something really intelligent to say by way of
analysis. But unfortunately, this campaign has not lent itself to this, as
it has focused as much on personalities as on the genuine issues of the day.
And, unfortunately, while I
am able to say that there is little to report regarding the election, the media,
struggling with that same paucity of solid material, resorts to providing
nonsense information in place of news. Tzipi Livni (head of the party
named after her) had an argument with Naftali Bennett (Habayit Hayehudi) when
they found themselves riding on the same elevator. Gasp! What a
revelation.
~~~~~~~~~~
The betting remains that Binyamin
Netanyahu will form the next coalition, but nothing is a certainty.
Besides which, there is still the major question of which factions will be
in that coalition.
Israeli law forbids election
polls in the days immediately leading up to the election. So, we've seen the
last of those polls -- although there have been a huge number, with almost daily
ones in the last weeks. From one to the other there have been some notable
differences, but by and large Likud-Beitenu (the merged Likud and Yisrael
Beitenu list) is expected to be the largest winner, by far --
although the current predictions of between 32 and 37 mandates are all less
than what had been anticipated when they merged their lists. And the
"right wing and religious" parties are expected to form a majority of the newly
elected Knesset. Habayit Hayehudi -- an "up and coming" party -- is
predicted to have some 14 mandates.
Yesh Atid is also making a quite
respectable showing for a new party.
Part of the problem in predicting
what will happen is the very large number of "undecideds" that remain this late
in the game. If a significant number of those who haven't decided yet
which party to vote for all vote in one direction, it could
throw all predications
off.
~~~~~~~~~~
Let me re-cap once again with
regard to what we'll be seeing. After the election results are in,
President Peres will meet with heads of each party and ask whom they
recommend to head the next government, i.e., form the coalition. As
party heads provide their answers, the number of mandates (seats) that they
represent is noted. Ultimately, Peres will select the person with
enough factions saying they support him/her so that it is assumed s/he will
be able to form a coalition -- i.e., have more than 60 seats in the 120 person
Knesset. (This presumption is not always accurate -- last time, Livni, who then
headed Kadima, was asked first and failed to form a coalition.)
Three major left-center parties --
Tzipi Livni, Labor (headed by Shelley Yachimovich) and Yesh Atid (headed by
Yair Lapid) -- had said they were going to form a coalition after the election,
and agree to all tell Peres that they wanted someone else (whom they had in
mind has never been quite clear), These three parties would not, even
with the most optimistic of election results for them, constitute a count of
more than 60 mandates. They would likely bring in other parties such as
Meretz and Kadima (which scarcely exists), and, still lacking sufficient
mandates, lure a heredi party such as Shas into their camp -- a party that would
agree via a prior arrangement not to recommend Netanyahu.
This is all
speculative theory. First, the three left-center heads do not get
along. It's not just Livni and Bennett in the elevator who have had harsh
words for each other. They have harsh words for each other when they're
not in an elevator. And second, for this to happen Shas would have to
be more attracted to this group, and what they offered in return for coalition
support, as compared what Netanyahu would offer.
So...we can assume it will likely
be Netanyahu.
I am going to go out on a limb
here and make my own prediction as to what the new coalition will look like (and
yes, I'll eat my words if I'm wrong):
Netanyahu and his Likud-Beitenu
list heading things up, with Habayit Hayehudi, Shas, likely United Torah
Judaism, and, from the left, Yesh Atid. This would bring the coalition
well over the number required.
Too often during this campaign
Likud-Beitenu has focused on attacks against Habayit Hayehudi, its natural ally
in many respects, rather than the left-center. It has not been pretty.
It's because, as I've written before, Bennett, who is greatly
popular, threatens Netanyahu, and there is the feeling that
Likud-Beitenu has gone down in the polls as Habayit Hayehudi gains.
But in the end (is this wishful thinking?), it's hard to imagine Netanyahu won't
include this faction, which IS its natural ally in many respects.
Yachimovich says she will not join
with Netanyahu, and, not only is Livni also saying this (although she might change her mind at any
moment), it is well known that Netanyahu is not inordinately fond of her.
At the same time, Lapid is dropping hints that he might join a Netanyahu
coalition. And so, of the three left-center, it is Yesh Atid I would
expect to join.
Could Netanyahu still bring in
Livni as well? Yea... Especially if he wants something resembling a
unity government in the event that he acts against Iran. The trick
would be to get "two state solution" Livni in the same government as
Bennett (see more below on this).
~~~~~~~~~~
With regard to bringing in
coalition factions with diverse positions: One of the stumbling blocks in
forming a coalition is that the haredi parties want military exemptions for
those studying in yeshivas, while the left-center, including Lapid, is
pumping for universal draft. The negotiations for establishing a
coalition of factions with diverse positions require
considerable political skill -- not to say compromise on the part of the
various players in order to be in the governing coalition.
~~~~~~~~~~
One of the issues that has been
raised in various contexts during the election is that of women's rights;
especially has this been the case since many of the undecided voters are
reported to be women.
There are countless social issues,
with all parties giving at least lip service to them -- improved education,
reducing poverty in the nation, etc.
A major dividing line between
parties has to do with "negotiations for a two-state solution." We've got
Meretz at the far left, calling for negotiations according to the "Saudi Peace
Plan," which is a recipe for Israel's destruction. And at the other end of
the spectrum there is Otzma leYisrael (Strength to Israel, with Arieh Eldad),
which says that Jordan is the Palestinian state.
It is on this issue that
Likud-Beitenu and Habayit Hayehudi diverge. Naftali Bennett has come out
against a Palestinian Arab state and calls for annexation of Area C. PM
Netanyahu says he will govern on the basis of his Bar Ilan proposal for a
demilitarized Palestinian Arab state.
I still believe that this is
political posturing -- he knows that there can be no negotiations now (he has
said so) and that his parameters will not be acceptable to the Palestinian
Arabs, who demand nothing less than everything -- refugee return, Jerusalem,
etc. etc.
Netanyahu is very different from
Livni, for example, who clambers passionately for that Palestinian Arab state,
which will make the world happy with us (she thinks). He says he'll keep
building in Jerusalem and the major blocs no matter what the world
says.
And yet his position diverges
from Bennett's. Bennett, however, would never refuse to join the
coalition because of this; on the contrary, he hopes to strengthen
Netanyahu's back.
~~~~~~~~~~
There are 34 parties running in
the election. A good number of them will not make it past the 2% cut off for
seats in the Knesset and will disappear from sight.
Here in Israel you don't have to
register to vote. Every citizen receives a slip in the mail entitling him or her
to vote at a designated place. Soldiers, who can vote at any polling
place, have begun voting.
~~~~~~~~~~
Before I leave this subject, I
cannot resist this question: Other than in the current situation, has
anyone ever heard of someone starting a party and naming it after herself?
Tells us a whole lot.
~~~~~~~~~~
Now here's a position from PM
Netanyahu that is worth repeating. He has met with a group of Senators
visiting in Jerusalem: John McCain (R-Ariz.), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), Kelly
Ayotte (R-N.H.), Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) and Christopher Coons (D-Del.).
And he told them:
"Building in Jerusalem is not the
world's problem; a nuclear Iran is the world's problem. The problem
is not building in Ariel and it is not building in Jerusalem. The
problem in the Middle East is Iran's attempt to build nuclear weapons, and the
chemical weapons in Syria and the Islamic extremism that is spreading in Africa
and threatening to inundate the entire region.
"History will not forgive
those who allow Iran to arm itself with nuclear weapons. This was, and remains,
the main mission facing not only myself and Israel, but the entire
world." (Emphasis added)
I do not believe this is
electioneering. I am convinced that he believes this, and that this was a
message for the American government.
Can he believe this and not
structure a coalition that will permit him to deal with the problems most
effectively?
~~~~~~~~~~
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Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner,
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