I must quote extensively from a MEMRI
analysis of the Egyptian referendum on the new constitution because
it shows so vividly how politics are work in the Arabic-speaking world
today, especially when voting is involved.
First, the analysis presents the pro-constitution camp that is the Islamists. They coordinate their efforts and launched:
“A
massive joint campaign aimed at persuading the public to endorse the
constitution. This campaign includes holding conferences and symposia
across Egypt; training thousands of Muslim Brotherhood activists to
promote the constitution, some of whom are even going door to door,
according to reports; and also recruiting mosque preachers and satellite
channels in the efforts to persuade the public. Especially prominent in
this campaign are the attempts to appeal to the average citizen and to
impress upon him the economic and social advantages of supporting the
constitution.”
“In
contrast to the unified pro-constitution camp, the opposition
organizations that oppose the constitution, headed by the National
Salvation Front, have been inconsistent and uncertain, especially in
deciding whether to boycott the referendum altogether or to merely urge
the citizens to vote against the constitution. Only on December 12,
three days before the start of the referendum, did the National
Salvation Front officially declare that it would participate in the
referendum (on certain conditions) and vote `no.’ The oppositionists'
efforts to persuade the public mainly took
the form of online campaigns on social networks, as well as flyers and
pamphlets distributed in the streets.”
In
other words, it is no contest. One might add that in Tunisia, Syria,
and other countries (including non-Arab Turkey) as well as Egypt most of
the time, moderates are not united or disciplined. They are also more
poorly funded and more naïve about how to operate politically than the
Islamists. The Islamists, or at least some of them (and that’s all
that’s necessary) are prepared to use intimidation and violence; the
moderates not.
Consequently,
the extremists almost inevitably win. But, you might ask, perhaps the
West will help the moderates to redress some of this imbalance?
Absolutely not. The moderates don’t have a fair short or a fair chance,
to use phrases popular with America’s president.
Professor Barry Rubin, Director, Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center http://www.gloria-center.org
The Rubin Report blog http://rubinreports.blogspot.com/
He is a featured columnist at PJM http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/.
Editor, Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal http://www.gloria-center.org
Editor Turkish Studies,http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/title~db=all~content=t713636933%22
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