President Barack Obama is starting a second
term in which he will be free from re-election concerns and the
restricting pressure of lobbies, but he really wants to leave his mark,
namely in the Middle East. But at what cost to Israel? The next prime
minister of Israel will be up against a strong American president
determined to spearhead a new world order and achieve stability in the
region.
A reset? President Barack
Obama escorting Prime Minister Netanyahu to his car after their 2010
meeting at the White House. [Archive]
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Photo credit: AP  |
U.S. President Barack Obama's victory will be
sealed when he is sworn in as president for a second time on Jan. 21
next year. This will be one day before the general elections in Israel,
in which, according to all the forecasts, Benjamin Netanyahu will also
win another term, his third as prime minister. A second round, and both
parties are coming back with a fresh mandate. The American president's
second term is seemingly one without too much obligation. The president
no longer needs to ingratiate himself with the voters to ensure another
term. The various lobbies will have far less impact and the president is
free to prove that, through hard work, he can go down in the annals of
his country's history as a leader of the free world, with a meaningful
foreign policy.
Obama's first attempt at reconciling our part
of the world did not go well. His big hopes for peace with the Arab
world, his Cairo speech and his siding with the Palestinian demand that
Israel freeze settlement construction in Judea and Samaria as a
precondition for resumption of talks, proved to be a grave misreading of
reality. He won a Nobel Peace Prize for having done nothing, his
conduct in the face of upheavals in the Arab world, mainly in Egypt, was
problematic, he handled the assassination of an American ambassador in
Libya with weakness and has essentially ignored the ongoing massacre in
Syria.
Add to that his inability to present a united
front with China and Russia in efforts to paralyze Iran and prevent
Tehran from developing nuclear weapons, and you get a picture seen not
only by White House officials, the State Department, the Pentagon, and
both houses of Congress but also by diplomats in Europe, Arab nations
and, of course, in Israel.
Now Obama is back for another shift and he
will face a long list of diplomatic and security challenges in this
region. Some of them apply to the entire region, and more specifically
to American national security, like the withdrawal from Afghanistan and
Iraq. The withdrawal from Iraq will affect Iran's influence there, and
by extension, the fate of the Persian Gulf.
Maintaining the existing policy, or
alternately changing policy, with regard to Syria, Egypt and Saudi
Arabia will also have a massive effect — on Israel. But obviously the
main issue for Israel will be Obama's determination, or desire, to keep
his promise from the first term: Not to allow Iran to gain nuclear
capability.
Regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict,
the big question is: does Obama have a plan? And more importantly: who
does he view as responsible for the diplomatic standstill? Does he plan
to force the sides (mainly Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud
Abbas) to resume negotiations? Will the talks be mediated by the
American secretary of state, a senior administration official or a
combination of European and American representatives?
In Jerusalem, officials are saying that by the
end of January, once the Israeli elections are over and the American
president has been sworn in for a second term, things will return to
normal and work will be resumed on diplomatic issues. Political sources
surmise that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu won't change his past
policies, not on Iran and not on the Palestinians, and that he will
steadfastly hold on to his principles, resisting American pressure
should such pressure be applied.
Meanwhile, Labor Chairwoman Shelly Yachimovich
met with American Ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro in Tel Aviv on
Thursday and congratulated him on President Barack Obama's victory in
the presidential election this week. Also on Thursday, Independence
Party Chairman and Defense Minister Ehud Barak addressed the forecasts
of a rocky future relationship between Netanyahu and Obama, saying that
"the personal issues carry some weight, but ultimately it is national
interests that count. I have spent time with Obama one on one and he is a
calculated man who can exercise self control."
The next prime minister of Israel will be up
against a strong American president determined to spearhead a new world
order and to achieve stability in the region. The reality is changing.
There is no doubt that the main question in the upcoming Israeli
election will be "who do you want as your leader?" Labor Chairwoman
Shelly Yachimovich and Yesh Atid ("There is a Future") Chairman Yair
Lapid both suffer from a substantial lack of diplomatic experience. But
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is an old pro. He served as a senior
Israeli diplomat in the U.S. (at the Israeli Embassy in Washington and
as Israel's ambassador to the U.N.), in a list of domestic positions as
well as having served as prime minister twice.
On two major issues — the Iranian threat and
the Palestinian issue — Netanyahu has shaped the national agenda, and in
at least the Iranian issue, his agenda was subsequently adopted by the
international community. All you have to do is look at Netanyahu's most
recent visit to Paris and listen to what French President François
Hollande said: no to a nuclear Iran; no to preconditions in negotiations
with the Palestinians (Netanyahu's main stance, which was rejected by
Hollande's predecessor Nicolas Sarkozy).
The Americans, like the Israelis, are proud of
the unprecedented cooperation between the two countries on defense. On
the other hand, the diplomatic chasm has only deepened. Obama thinks
that there is time for dialogue with Iran, alongside sanctions.
Netanyahu points out a dangerous process by which the Iranians are
buying time, fooling the world and all the while enriching uranium and
fast approaching the point of no return. The prime minister is holding
on to the knowledge that the U.S. understands that Israel can take
independent action to defend itself, and "instead of begging, I'm
preparing," as Netanyahu said.
Netanyahu's government and Obama's
administration face two major issues that will have to be decided even
before the general elections in Israel: the first is the unilateral
Palestinian request for an upgrade in their U.N. status, expected to
take place at the end of the month. The other is the negotiations
between Iran and the six world powers, expected to resume within a
number of weeks. Senior Israeli officials stressed that in the U.S.,
Israel's interests are an issue that crosses the party divide and it
makes no difference whether a Democrat or a Republican is in the White
House. This has been proven by history, and if that is not enough, there
is also the fact that there is a Republican majority in Congress.
Though Congress doesn't make foreign policy decisions,
it does need to approve the president's budget, and these things are
tied up in a delicate balance. The ten point decline in Jewish support
for the Democratic Party has also not escaped Obama's watchful eye. In
the American political arena, with the help of commentators, Netanyahu
was seen as having given Obama the cold shoulder, and as someone who
would benefit if Obama's Republican rival Mitt Romney won. Will Obama
try to get even with Netanyahu now that the Israeli prime minister is up
for re-election? We'll have to wait and see.
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