Since midnight last night, no
rockets have been fired from Gaza into Israel, although there was one mortar
shell. This quiet is a result of a ceasefire brokered
by Egypt.
On Army Radio today, Amos
Gilad -- head of the Diplomatic-Security Bureau of the Ministry of Defense --
said that Egyptian security forces have "a very impressive ability" to convey to
the militants that it is in their "supreme interest not to
attack."
However, according to Arutz Sheva,
there are reports coming in indicating that not all terror
groups have agreed to the ceasefire and some reserve the right to fire
on Israel.
~~~~~~~~~~
Whether this ceasefire holds or
not, I would like to devote space here to looking at Hamas motivation.
For this, a bit of background is necessary. The story of Gaza is
certainly no less complex and convoluted than the story of other areas in this
region.
I had mentioned in a recent post
that Hamas is embroiled in its own internal politics, and, not
surprisingly, this is part of the story. There has been an internal split within Hamas
regarding its relationship with Iran.
Iran's relationship with Hamas had
grown tepid because of a sense in Tehran that this group could not be trusted.
They cut back on support for Hamas, and began funding Islamic Jihad, which is
completely allied with Iran, instead. At present, according to my
best information, all that Iran provides Hamas with funds for now is terrorist
activity -- rockets, etc. Support for the Hamas government and infrastructure in
Gaza is coming now from Turkey and Qatar.
However, as is obvious from the
fact that they are still supporting Hamas terror activity, Iran has no intention
of breaking with Hamas and most clearly wishes to utilize this group for its
purposes.
~~~~~~~~~~
The politburo leaders of Hamas,
previously headquartered in Syria, not only left Syria, Iran's strongest ally,
but broke with Iran. They have moved into the sphere of influence of the Muslim
Brotherhood -- Iran and the Brotherhood being competing spheres that have
great enmity between them -- and are currently based in Qatar, which has strong
ties to the Brotherhood.
Khaled Mashaal, current head of
the politburo, is leaving. At a symposium in Qatar earlier this
month, he made a surprisingly candid admission: that Hamas tried to "combine
resistance with government, but this is difficult... Islamists need to admit
that governing is more complicated than they thought."
Credit: Times of
Israel
Moussa Abu Marzouk, who has
served as Mashaal's deputy, is expected to take over.
Credit:
presstv
The local leadership inside of
Gaza, most notably Ismail Haniyeh, has continued to maintain a connection
with Iran. (It is, after all, from inside of Gaza that the
rockets, funded by Iran, are launched.)
Credit:
Tunisia-live
Denials to the contrary
not-with-standing, there has been considerable tension between Mashaal and
Haniyeh.
~~~~~~~~~~
Enter Sheik Hamad bin Khalifa Al
Thani, the Emir of Qatar.
Credit:
Thenewstribe
On Tuesday, amidst great fanfare,
the Emir visited Gaza - the first head of state to do so since Hamas took over
in a coup in 2007. This was an enormous diplomatic breakthrough for Hamas,
which now feels less isolated. The Emir came bearing gifts --
reportedly some $400,000 -- along with the promise of diplomatic prestige.
Clearly his goal was to enfold Hamas into the sphere of the
Brotherhood.
~~~~~~~~~~
Now it seems very unlikely indeed
that the barrage of rockets from Gaza and the Emir's visit have no connection to
each other.
"Common wisdom" has it that Hamas,
feeling confirmed and strengthened by his visit, then decided to flex its
muscles by launching rockets at Israel in large numbers.
I, however, have picked up a
different perspective from a knowledgeable, Arabic-speaking inside source:
It's Iran, he says: It was at the instigation of Iran that the escalation in
rocket launchings took place. The goal was to demonstrate that
Hamas did not do the bidding of the Brotherhood, but, rather, that Iranian
influence still held sway.
Haniyeh and company, it would
seem, were happy to pocket the Emir's gift, and then demonstrate their
independence from him. Undoubtedly, playing one side against the other
gives them a sense of having an advantage.
~~~~~~~~~~
©
Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner,
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