"Netanyahu's Coalition"

Arlene Kushner

How stable is it? That's the question these days.

At one and the same time, the coalition embraces Labor, with Ehud Barak as Defense Minister, and Yisrael Beitenu (Israel Our Home) with Avigdor Lieberman as Foreign Minister. And each, in his turn, has voiced an opinion on "peace" consistent with his party's position. Needless to say, there is no unanimity in these positions.

The question has been raised many times as to whether these ministers are "loose cannons," or are floating trial balloons -- saying things unofficially that Netanyahu wants said. I myself have pondered this from time to time. But the two positions are so at odds that they cannot at one and the same time both represent covert opinions of Netanyahu. (And I'm not even mentioning Shas and Eli Yishai as Interior Minister here.) In the last several days, Avigdor Lieberman has been in the media spotlight. At a meeting Sunday of Israel's ambassadors and counsels-general, Lieberman, who is their boss, said that because of current diplomatic and political realities, there is no chance of reaching a comprehensive agreement with the Palestinian Arabs. At least in part, he said, this is because the PA government is illegitimate [having postponed elections so that terms for the president and the legislature have expired].

"I don't think we can reach a comprehensive agreement that solves all questions of security, territory and end of conflict. I think this impossible under present conditions."

Said Lieberman, it is a mistake to create false expectations by implying that a final peace can be achieved in one to two years (which is what Netanyahu has said repeatedly): it is time to work for an interim agreement instead.

His recommendation was that there be cooperation in areas of security and economics, with core issues such as Jerusalem, refugees, and borders tabled.

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I will note here that I am not in total agreement with Lieberman, who espouses the idea that reducing the economic gap between Israel and the PA would significantly help to resolve the conflict. This is myth. Ideology trumps economics -- this has repeatedly been demonstrated. Additionally I wish he had said that there should be no further discussion on Jerusalem, which is Israel's eternal, united capital. But, nonetheless... he comes closer to espousing a reasonable position than anyone else in the government.

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Netanyahu quickly responded that only he speaks for the government and that government positions are determined via Cabinet decisions. Lieberman's words "represent his personal assessments and positions, just as other ministers in the government have different positions from each other."

On Monday evening, in a TV interview, the prime minister said that if conditions were right, "no coalition considerations would stop me" from pursuing an historic peace agreement. The right conditions? According to Netanyahu, these are recognizing the legitimacy of Israel as a Jewish state, giving up on the right of return, and then additionally arriving at satisfactory terms on security.

"But up until now they are just trying to run away from negotiations...If they...accept those two basic conditions to reaching an agreement, I will not hesitate."

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Netanyahu is playing word games, telling the world, "see we are not the stumbling block, look how eager we are to proceed. Don't pay attention to Lieberman, who suggests we reduce our efforts." But of course Lieberman is correct. There is not a snowball's chance in hell that the Palestinian Arabs will renounce the "right of return" and acknowledge that Israel is the Jewish state.

But neither is there the remotest possibility that Netanyahu, even as he plays these games, really believes in what he is saying. For, on Monday, along with his statement above, he also offered this:

"There could be a situation in which talks with the Palestinians hit a brick wall over the issues of Jerusalem and the right of return, and in that case the result would be an interim agreement.

"It certainly is a possibility."

(Is this, or is it not, a back-handed acknowledgement of the correctness of what Lieberman said?)
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Both Labor, inside the coalition, and Kadima, in the opposition, expressed horror at Lieberman's words. "The government of Israel, headed by Netanyahu, has committed itself to the vision of two states for two peoples," read a (delusional) statement put out by Labor.

In spite of this protest and his own alleged anger with Lieberman, however, Netanyahu declined to discipline him for speaking his mind.

Thus followed a flurry of public and media statements -- including a JPost editorial calling for Netanyahu to remove Lieberman from his position. The concern is that there is no coherent Israeli policy with these "wildcat" statements being advanced, and that this makes it impossible for Netanyahu to govern effectively.

That concern has some legitimacy.

Lieberman himself addressed it: "Can Israel put out a clear plan?" he asked. "That is...a good question in the political reality. With the current system of government and coalition contradictions, I don't think you can reach a common model, a common denominator..."

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There are predictions that internal dissension within the government will tear it apart. But it is premature to predict this. Netanyahu is, first, an astute and tough-minded politician, guarding his own power base. He trades off one thing for another to keep his coalition intact. This is, indeed, built into the nature of coalition politics, but Netanyahu is particularly adept at manipulating the system.

That this weakens him and interferes with his ability to chart a clear course is obviously the case. In the end, as has happened so often before, we'll be saved by the Palestinian Arabs who are so totally intransigent that Netanyahu can hold tight even without that clear course.

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And what are the Palestinian Arabs doing these days?

For starters, they immediately let it be known that they would not accept any interim agreement. Chief negotiator Saeb Erakat declared: "interim solutions are rejected part and parcel."

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Then there are serious tensions between Mahmoud Abbas and Muhammad Dahlan, former security commander in Gaza, and until the present an active member of Fatah. Now the Fatah Central Committee has voted unanimously to suspend his membership pending an inquiry into allegations that he was planning a coup against PA leadership. I cannot speak for the authenticity of these allegations, but it is clear that the figurative crown rests uneasily on the head of Abbas, who indeed tends to be paranoid. Abbas has shut down a radio station Dahlan ran in Ramallah.

Dahlan, at not quite 50, is considered a possible successor to Abbas -- he is a "Young Turk," part of the generation that rose up in the party from local roots -- in his case in Khan Yunis in Gaza -- as compared to the older Arafat associates such as Abbas who came here from Tunis. He will be coming to Ramallah from Cairo, where he lives, to face the charges.

Let me emphasize that there are no good guys to root for here, they are all bums. Dahlan has documented links to terrorism, and was connected to the Karine-A weapons ship. Either way, internal dissension further weakens the ability of Fatah and the PA to function. One story has it that Abbas is angry at Dahlan for insulting his sons, saying they became rich by utilizing Abbas's influence.

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By the way, George Canawati of Radio Bethlehem was detained for five days by Palestinian security forces because he broadcast a news item regarding friction within Fatah party.

What is it the US says, regarding a democratic Palestinian state?

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Most significantly, the PA is now preparing to bring a resolution to the UN Security Council declaring our "settlements" illegal.

There are still several unknowns regarding the precise wording of such a resolution and what the ramifications would be. It is exceedingly unlikely that it would be brought under Chapter 7, which would give the UN enforceability, and the expectation is that the US would oppose the settlement resolution.

While not specifically committing the US to a veto of such a resolution, State Department spokesman Mark Toner declared: "We have consistently opposed taking these kinds of issues to the UN Security Council.

"Final-status issues can only be resolved" through direct negotiations, he declared.

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At the same time, Erekat is saying there are no plans in the near future to ask the SC to recognize a Palestinian state.

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Yesterday, President Obama appointed Robert Ford, a career diplomat, as the first US ambassador to Syria since 2005. He utilized a recess appointment (i.e., appointment while the Senate is in recess) to bypass opposition from Senate Republicans. They are not amused. Ford can serve only until the end of the next session of Congress.

This is a bad move by Obama, as it rewards Syria for the wrong things. But how typically "Obama" it is.

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"The Good News Corner"

There is actually -- Baruch HaShem -- lots of good news.

Moshe Ya'alon, Deputy Prime Minister and Strategic Affairs Minister, gave an interview to Israel Radio yesterday. Among the things he said:

-- As a result of the technological damage done to its computers by the cyberworm, Iran has no capability to create a nuclear weapon now. He estimates it will take three years to develop that capacity again. (Although the US is reportedly worried about the installation of more effective centrifuges that might shorten that time.)

-- The US and Europe are "straying away" from the idea of a unilaterally established Palestinian state.
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An offshore natural gas reserve of great size was discovered about 129 km. northwest of the coast of Haifa about a year ago. The Leviathan, located 1,650 km into the water, has been evaluated over a period of several months, and has now been declared the largest find of it kind discovered in the world in the last decade. "It has the potential to position Israel as a natural gas exporting nation." And this, understand, is some 47 km. south of another somewhat smaller gas reserve, called "Tamar," that is said to worth $15 billion.
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Israel's gross domestic product increased by 4.5% this past year, a rate of growth larger than had been anticipated. We are faring better than many countries in the OECD
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A record number of tourists visited Israel this year, and Tourist Minister Stas Meseznikov hopes to see four million visitors annually by 2013.
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We are witnessing a growth in aliyah, as well. More than 10,000 people moved to Israel in 2010, many from free and democratic Western nations. I.e., people are coming because of a positive connection with Israel and not because they are fleeing persecution. The average age of new olim (immigrants) is just under 30.

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I confess, the secular new year passes me by with little note. Particularly here in Israel, and most especially because it falls on Shabbat this year.

For all those readers who will be taking note of this event, or celebrating, I most certainly extend wishes for a happy and healthy new year!


For those observing Shabbat tomorrow night, Shabbat Shalom.

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© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution


see my website www.ArlenefromIsrael.info
see my website www.ArlenefromIsrael.info