Top Iran negotiator: Iranian nuke concessions reversible in one day
Moves to block bipartisan Senate legislation celebrated by Iranian media and pro-Iran lobbies, blasted by Senate sources
Observers worry over Hamas campaign amid uptick in Gaza and West Bank operations
International tribunal's launch focuses attention on Hezbollah violence, impunity
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The Daily Beast today conveyed statements by Abbas Araqchi, Iran's deputy foreign minister and its top nuclear negotiator, boasting that the
concessions Iran has committed to making under the Joint Plan of Action
(JPA) - and more specifically, its commitments regarding its stockpile
of 20% uranium - can be reversed in one day. Iran has committed to
halting enrichment to 20%, diluting half of its existing 20% stockpile
to 5% levels, and converting the other half to an oxide form in which it
can't be further enriched.
Over the weekend Araqchi told
Iranian television that "we can return again to 20 percent enrichment in
less than one day and we can convert the [nuclear] material again."
Substantively, the comments will draw attention to fundamental
asymmetries in the JPA. The West's sanctions concessions are
straightforwardly irreversible because Iran will get to pocket the
billions in financial relief it receives, and it will be difficult -
many analysts, backed by a steady stream of new evidence have suggested that it will in fact be functionally impossible -
to restore the structure of the international sanctions regime.
Diplomatically, Araqchi's boasts are likely to deepen concerns that the
Iranians will exploit the JPA's asymmetries and walk away from
negotiations. Patrick Clawson and Mehdi Khalaji - respectively the
director of research and a senior fellow at the Washington Institute -
had published an opinion piece in mid-November suggesting that Iranian
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was laying the groundwork to
pocket Western concessions under an interim deal and walk away from
further negotiations. An anti-U.S. lash-out by Khamenei later that
month deepened those fears. Araqchi's
statements will be read within that debate, and may fuel concerns that
Western negotiators lack sufficient leverage to force Iran to make
robust concessions regarding its nuclear program. The worry is the basis
for a Congressional push to pass legislation that would signal now that
- should Iran abandon talks later - crippling sanctions would
immediately be reposed. The White House has sought to halt momentum for
the bill, in part by accusing its advocates of warmongering.
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Senate Majority Leader Harry
Reid (D-NV) this week signaled that he will not permit the Senate to
vote on bipartisan legislation - formally co-sponsored by 59 senators and reportedly supported by
a veto-proof majority of 77 - that would impose sanctions on Iran
should negotiations over the Islamic republic's nuclear program fail. The Hill noted that the decision came "[a]mid intense pressure from President Obama and the White House," elements of which included accusations of warmongering leveled at Democrats by administration supporters. Iranian state outlet PressTV positively covered Reid's
efforts to block a vote in the face of what the station described as
"the Israeli lobby's efforts" - the second at least two such articles that PressTV published this week about the Senate leader - and also conveyed reports of animated personal lobbying by President Barack Obama himself. The Nation noted that the
legislation is also opposed by the National Iranian Council, by which
the magazine likely meant the National Iranian American Council, which
is a lobby that has been accused by
members of Congress of pushing pro-regime "propaganda" amid efforts by
lawmakers to pressure Iran into making meaningful concessions that would
defuse the international crisis over Tehran's nuclear program. The tone
inside the Senate differed, with a senior aide expressing frustration at Reid for "blocking a majority of senators who want to stop Iran from going nuclear."
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Observers are expressing
deepening concerns regarding efforts by Palestinian groups to
destabilize Israel's border with the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip, amid months of foiled attempts by the Iran-backed faction to launch spectacular terror attacks that would bolster its precipitously sliding domestic and regional stature. As many as eight rockets were fired overnight from the Gaza Strip at the Israeli city of Ashkelon, with five being intercepted by Israel's Iron Dome defense system. The barrage followed another one from earlier this week, when two rockets were fired after
the funeral of former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. Upwards of
twenty rockets have been fired at Israel this year, as compared with
roughly forty in all of 2013, and Hamas is known to
be qualitatively and quantatively bolstering its missile arsenal.
Meanwhile reports are emerging that the group is engaging in, and
boosting its capacity for, suicide bombings and similar terror
operations. David Barnett, a Palestinian affairs expert at the
Foundation for Defense of Democracies, yesterday outlined a series of recent Hamas terror plots uncovered by Israeli authorities operating in the West Bank. The Times of Israel also reported yesterday that
the second year of Gaza's so-called "Pioneers of Liberation" program,
which involves training high school-age students to engage in combat and
emulate "suicide martyrs," had just concluded. Approximately 18,000
teenagers have reportedly been through the paramilitary programs, with
boys and girls - per Hamas's broader educational policies - taught separately.
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Former Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri today hailed the opening of
the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) at The Hague as the "first page
of true justice" in response to the assassination of his father, former
Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, as the STL launched its first
trial into Hariri's February 2005 murder. The U.N.-backed court
has indicted and seeks to try five members of Hezbollah for various
roles in the attack. Four of the defendants are accused of direct
involvement: Mustafa Badr Al Deen, believed to be the mastermind behind
the operation, Salim Ayyash, accused of being in charge of the technical
operational details, Hussain Anaissi, and Assad Sabra, both of whom are
accused of preparing a propaganda video to claim false responsibility
after the attack. Hezbollah has repeatedly interfered in the tribunal's work and refused to turn over the suspects, going so far as to threaten to attack anyone
who attempts to apprehend them. The Iran-backed terror group's stance
has been blasted - and was again criticized by Hariri at the STL's
opening - for putting the organization and its members beyond legal
authority. Hudson Institute senior fellow Lee Smith has outlined how Hezbollah mobilizes organized violence - most recently via the car bombing and murder of
former Ambassador to the U.S. Mohamad Chatah - to reinforce perceptions
of exactly such immunity. The STL will be the first international
tribunal to try suspects in absentia since Nuremberg.
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