I left my posting abruptly yesterday because of the advent of Shabbat and
want here to follow through. But it’s tentatively only, because indeed
events are in the process of unfolding and we have to see what tomorrow and the
ensuing days will bring.
Quite frankly, I had expected to return to the news to learn that Israel
was expanding the operation in the face of Hamas’s kidnapping of Second Lt.
Hadar Goldin and the killing of two other soldiers, after a “mutual” ceasefire –
that was supposed to include discussions in Cairo on terms for extending it -
had begun.
Credit: AP
The sense of outrage was very real, the anger. It seemed finally the
time to stop pulling punches and take down Hamas. I was particularly eager
to see us go after Hamas leaders.
~~~~~~~~~~
What I found, then, when Shabbat ended, startled me: I learned that
our troops were being pulled back from the Beit Lahiya and
al-Atatara areas of northern Gaza and the civilians told that they could
return to those areas.
The IDF was saying that all the tunnels that led into Israel that had been
discovered would be destroyed in another day or two.
This statement remains a bit amorphous: What if some haven’t been
discovered yet – but still might be if the operation continued longer?
What if some of the other tunnels that do not yet lead into Israel (and there
are many in various parts of Gaza) could yet be extended into
Israel?
Certainly we have done overwhelmingly destructive damage to that system of
tunnels – they are saying we have demolished what it took Hamas five years to
build. We have rendered it impossible for them to do the sort of massive
and horrific attack they had planned – with hundreds of terrorists leaping out
from tunnel exits in multiple communities in the south of Israel all at the same
time.
All sorts of technologies are being examined to detect further digging
across the border; troops are being stationed on the Gaza side near the border;
and security forces in the communities in the south are being boosted. So,
the danger that had been incredibly great and very imminent, has been reduced to
one that is small, if not totally eliminated.
All along Netanyahu had said there was no guarantee that we could get 100%
of the tunnels.
Perhaps that’s an honest assessment of the situation – that is, short of
totally taking out Hamas - even if it is one many of us are not fully
comfortable with. What will matter in the end is what the residents of the
south are prepared to accept. (Many of them have gone elsewhere and are
waiting to go home.)
~~~~~~~~~~
The first impression given by this joint announcement – that troops were
pulling back from some areas and that we were almost done taking out tunnels –
was that we’d be pulling out of Gaza momentarily. A startling, bewildering and
distressing impression – and one that in the end seemed to be not true.
Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke to the nation this evening and indicated
that the redeployment of forces, because the tunnel phase of the operation was
coming to an end, did not mean that the campaign against Hamas in Gaza was
ending. We would take as much time as we needed, he said, leaving all options
open, and applying force as it was required.
Meeting late into the night last night, the Security Cabinet decided to
maintain “the current nature” of the operation, and “take stock” as
necessary. It is, in other words, a situation in flux.
~~~~~~~~~~
There are, however, some exceedingly important points that have been
made: We are now saying that we will not have any further “humanitarian
ceasefires” promoted by the international community. We will decide when it is
appropriate to halt firing. Long overdue and sounding good.
What is more, we will not be sending a delegation to Cairo to negotiate a
long-term quiet. If Hamas cannot be trusted to honor its commitment for a
72 hour ceasefire, there is no point in pursuing negotiations.
I see this as very significant. For Hamas’s whole goal – its definition of
“victory” – had to do with securing certain benefits it was after: release of
prisoners, and, more importantly, opening up of its borders. We were
supposed to ultimately grant these benefits, in some measure, in exchange for
having them stop firing on us. That would have been a great win for them.
I will note here the obvious: the purpose of kidnapping a soldier, or
trying to, was to secure a bargaining chip in negotiations. But if there are no
negotiations?
~~~~~~~~~~
We are now saying that we’ll simply decide when to call it quits. We
cannot leave Gaza if there is no quiet however. And if Hamas continues to fire
rockets at Israel, the operation – I certainly hope! - will continue.
Will we get all their rockets? Without a very massive ground operation that
sought them out in all the places where they are hidden – tunnels, mosques,
schools, etc. – that is not possible. (Think about what a dirty situation
this is!) But I am reading that at this point a considerable portion of their
arsenal has been eliminated.
~~~~~~~~~
And this is what I suspect will be the end of the matter: I believe
for Netanyahu, the option of demilitarizing Hamas is still very much
alive. I believe that he sees this as the most effective and realistic way
to resolve the matter. And as I wrote the other day – as I discovered for
myself the other day - there is support for this in several quarters
internationally, and some good reason to think this might happen. Even
tonight he referred to his appreciation for nations he has new relations with,
and that is a lightly veiled reference to Arab nations, who would be expected to
support what he hopes to do.
What is more, as much as I truly want to see the heads of Hamas leaders
roll, I understand what we’re dealing with here, which makes the take-down of
Hamas perhaps not the most viable option. A nightmare situation, with our
boys having to go into an enormously congested Gaza City, where there are still
tunnels underground, and running the risk of being murdered by terrorists
leaping out at them, or attempting to kidnap them. I think Netanyahu is hoping
for a different way.
~~~~~~~~~~
From the Times of Israel we have this most interesting report:
”In a phone call with US Ambassador to Israel Dan
Shapiro about the breakdown of the short-lived UN- and US-brokered ceasefire
between Israel and Hamas, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vented his anger,
according to people familiar with the call.
“Netanyahu told Shapiro the Obama administration was ‘not to ever second-guess me again’ and that Washington should trust his judgment on how to deal with Hamas, according to people familiar with the conversation. Netanyahu added that he now ‘expected’ the US and other countries to fully support Israel’s offensive in Gaza...”
“Netanyahu told Shapiro the Obama administration was ‘not to ever second-guess me again’ and that Washington should trust his judgment on how to deal with Hamas, according to people familiar with the conversation. Netanyahu added that he now ‘expected’ the US and other countries to fully support Israel’s offensive in Gaza...”
In his address to the nation, after this report had surfaced, Netanyahu
denied its veracity and talked about how he appreciates the support of the US,
etc. etc.
But that Times of Israel piece rings true to me. It was the US and
the UN jointly that had pushed for the ceasefire and subsequent
negotiations. And after the kidnapping, it was the US that apparently
called upon Turkey and Qatar to get Hamas to release Goldin immediately, so
negotiations could take place. Turkey made some noise in that direction.
As if – after a kidnapping during a ceasefire – we would proceed as if
everything was fine if we got our soldier back.
I think that Obama and company have been made to feel very foolish with
regard to this “negotiations” effort that backfired completely. And I suspect
something in the dynamic here may have shifted in favor of what Netanyahu is
seeking.
Time will tell.
~~~~~~~~~~
As to Hadar Goldin, the IDF is saying they will everything possible to
bring him back. But in truth there is reason to believe he is not alive – that
what Hamas grabbed was his body, or that he was wounded and died after they took
him. For there has been no announcement from Hamas regarding this – which
would be promoted as a great “victory.”
Goldin’s very lovely family appeared on TV tonight, and they implored the
IDF not to leave without rescuing him. Terribly painful stuff. I
learned tonight that he had recently gotten engaged.
~~~~~~~~~~
Here I leave it, for now. Again, I share a fantastic political
cartoon:
~~~~~~~~~~
©
Arlene Kushner.
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