Credit: NOAA
In my last posting I wrote about “rays of light,” and indeed they do
exist. But I would be remiss indeed if I were to convey a simple-mindedly
optimistic message. The somber truth is that we are facing down some
exceedingly tough situations.
For starters, there is Hezbollah. I’ve been reporting for some time
about the difficulties of this jihadist terror group. Hezbollah, based in
Lebanon, lost considerable support amongst the Lebanese when it started sending
its fighters into Syria to battle alongside Assad’s troops. Suddenly, they
were killing other Arabs instead of killing Jews as they are “supposed” to
do. This rendered them considerably less popular, especially, when Syrian
rebels, angry at being targeted by Hezbollah fighters, began shelling at
Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon.
Then there is the fact that some 350 Hezbollah fights have died in the
Syrian civil war. And there is the inability of the Assad regime, up to
its neck in fighting, to attend to supplying Hezbollah with weaponry,
transported over the border into Lebanon.
Add to Hezbollah’s current challenges the fact of Israeli deterrence.
Hezbollah "knows what will happen if it gets into conflict
with us, and that this will set Lebanon back decades," IDF Chief of Staff Benny
Gantz said just days ago at the Herzliya Conference.
The impression one has, then, is of a Hezbollah that would be exceedingly
reluctant to take on Israel. “Hezbollah is deterred,” concluded
Gantz.
~~~~~~~~~~
However, there is a huge “but” here. For Gantz also said, "there are maybe four of five countries (in the region) with
more fire power than Hezbollah. They have a tremendous fire power which covers
all of Israel." According to Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon, there are
roughly 100,000 missiles and rockets in Hezbollah’s arsenal.
Worrisome, to be sure. And according to some reports, there is
concern in the Israeli military that for the first time, Hezbollah, which has
been training for this, might take the battle into Israeli territory.
~~~~~~~~~~
This does not mean anything will happen tomorrow. Nor is there
ultimately any concern about the Israeli military besting Hezbollah
forces. Hezbollah has placed a large portion of its arsenal in civilian
areas, but Israel has let it be known that it will have to go after those
arsenals nonetheless. Were there to be war, action from the air would be
swift and fierce, of necessity.
See Air Force Chief Major-General Amir Eshel on
this:
"Our ability today to attack targets on a large scale
and with high precision is about 15 times greater than what we did in the (2006)
war," Eshel said. He indicated intense fighting was necessary to keep the
duration of the conflict short "because the more protracted the war, the more
missiles we'll be hit with here".
As well, there would likely be a speedy ground action.
Reassuring. However, with all of this said, complacency with regard
to this situation is not advised.
~~~~~~~~~~
I cannot revisit this subject, even now, without expressing my fury at then
prime minister Ehud Olmert and then foreign minister Tzipi Livni. It
didn’t have to be this way. Olmert – who vacillated terribly - was
unwilling to see the 2006 war in Lebanon to a successful conclusion, which would
have meant taking out Hezbollah. And Livni bragged about her part in
setting up UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which called for UNIFIL to stop
Hezbollah from re-arming. Trust the UN to protect us. Right...
~~~~~~~~~~
As to Syria, reports out of the Herzliya Conference indicate the civil war
shows no signs of abating.
Israel truly is between a rock and a hard place with regard to a Syrian
policy. For some time, it was felt in many quarters here that the greatest
danger was Assad, because of the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah axis. The problem is
that a very large part of the rebels (80% by some estimates) are jihadists, who
have their eye on Israel next. For this reason, the presence of rebel
forces at the border of the Golan is carefully monitored. These are not Syrian
nationalists fighting for a better Syria. They have international aspirations
with regard to a caliphate – a Middle East, at the very least, united under
Islamic law. What is more, a good number of the rebel fighters have come from
beyond Syria (many are Europeans, but some Arabs who are Israeli citizens have
gone to fight).
See this report by Ari Soffer on the Syrian rebels:
“Although the Syrian opposition is primarily
comprised of Sunni Muslims (Syria's majority population), rebel battalions are
far from ideologically homogeneous. They range from Al Qaeda to the Muslim
Brotherhood, and from privately-funded Salafist brigades to groups still
ostensibly committed to a secular Syrian state...”
~~~~~~~~~~
And lastly, there are Hamas and smaller Islamists groups in Gaza. In
addition to the 100,000 rockets and missiles said to be in the possession of
Hezbollah, it is estimated that the Gaza groups, most particularly Hamas, have
another 70,000. This according to Itai Brun,
director of research in the Israel Defense Forces Intelligence branch, among
others.
~~~~~~~~~~
Yesterday afternoon, a rocket was launched from Gaza
into southern Israel. Israel responded with an airstrike late last night
that took out 33-year-old Mohammad Awwar, who had
al-Qaeda connections. He has participated in many terror attacks, said the
Shin Bet, and was planning more.
And here I must ask a question: Would we have hit Awwar last night if there
had not been a rocket launched? If he was known to be planning additional
attacks – and his whereabouts were known – how long would we have waited?
Be that as it may, the position of Israel right now is that Abbas, as head
of the unity government, has responsibility for the rocket, must take over Gaza,
and eliminate the rocket cache.
While the US does not hold the PA responsible, unity government or not.
Said State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki said: “we
acknowledge the reality that Hamas currently controls Gaza.”
~~~~~~~~~~
A grim posting – even without mention of the jihadi (ISIS) takeover in
parts of Iraq and Syria, with threats to Jordan imminent.
Or what’s happening with Iran.
The obvious must be stated here: We are seeing the fruits of Obama
policies. Matters did not have to be so grim.
~~~~~~~~~~
Let’s end with an item (multiple items, really) that are upbeat and
informative: From israel21c, 18 Israeli inventions that could save your
life:
~~~~~~~~~~
© Arlene Kushner.
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