Activism is unquestionably a trait that is admired in Israel. Zionist-rooted rhetoric such as "we have to determine our borders and destiny on our own" falls on receptive ears.
However, probably the wisest course of action for Israel
is a patient and cautious "wait and see" approach. Resolving the
conflict is impossible, but attempting to manage it -- minimizing the
suffering to both sides as well as the diplomatic costs to Israel -- is
within reach.
Kerry's initiative has indeed ended in failure. But the
sky has not fallen. There is no sense of alarm or fear of a great
impending crisis in the region or elsewhere in the world.
Pressure on Israel to change the status quo is unlikely.
Actually, it serves Israel's interests to keep the status quo to hold
on to its bargaining cards. The assumption that time is running against
Israel is simply wrong. As a matter of fact, the Palestinian issue is
likely to become less salient in the international arena over time.
After the Kerry debacle, Washington is left counting an
additional foreign policy failure, trying to digest what happened and
pondering how to proceed. Its current instinct is to stay away from
interventionist initiatives. The U.S., drained by two wars (Afghanistan
and Iraq) and blessed with new energy finds, does not want to get
dragged into further conflicts in a Middle East that seems less central
to its interests. So the Obama administration may be less inclined to
intervene in the intractable Israeli-Palestinian conflict than ever
before. Even if the U.S. obsession about Palestinian statehood persists
for some reason, it is still better for Israel to wait and learn
Washington's next moves before devising an adequate response.
Moreover, in light of America's great importance to
Israel, uncoordinated unilateral steps by Israel on the West Bank are
not advisable. Israeli statements expressing a commitment to future
peace negotiations, coupled with restraint in building beyond the
settlement blocs, might be enough to keep America at bay and reluctant
to intervene.
The U.S. is also unlikely to be confronted with Arab
pressure to focus on the Palestinian issue if Israel does not engage in
drastic steps. The Arab world is undergoing a tremendously difficult
economic and sociopolitical crisis and is busy dealing with domestic
problems. Moreover, the Iranian nuclear threat continues to be the most
urgent foreign policy issue, putting most Sunni states in the same
strategic boat with Israel. Even the Palestinians do not take Arab lip
service on their behalf seriously.
In all probability, most countries of the world can also
live with an unresolved Palestinian issue. There are many simmering
territorial conflicts all over the world. Nowadays, Crimea and eastern
Ukraine dominate the news. In the coming months and years, many human
and political tragedies will divert attention away from the Palestinian
issue.
Significantly, the Palestinians have no impact on truly
important strategic issue such as nuclear proliferation or energy that
might galvanize powerful states into action. Once, they were an
important actor in international terrorism. This is no longer true.
Nowadays, Palestinians are very dependent upon international aid.
Rocking the boat by using too much violence threatens the livelihood of
Palestinians receiving the Palestinian Authority's salaries and
benefits, and risks Israel's strong retaliation. Simply put, the
Palestinians have only limited international leverage and are vulnerable
to Israel's potentially harmful countermeasures.
Moreover, the Palestinians have an excellent record of
shooting themselves in the foot. The unity agreement between the
Palestinian Authority and Hamas is the latest example of this.
Whatever some experts say, Israel is not isolated in the
international community. Israel is a strong country, possessing a
remarkable web of international interactions. Significantly, Israel's
relations with the world are only marginally affected by its conflict
with the Palestinians.
The political actors most obsessed with the Palestinian
issue, the Israeli political Left and the Europeans, are in decline. The
Oslo process, with which the Israeli Left was associated, has failed,
delegitimizing its initiators. Europe and the euro zone are facing acute
problems, further reducing their limited ability to be true strategic
actors. The ability of these weakened political actors to push the
Palestinian issue to the top of the international agenda has become
increasingly curtailed. Contemporary international circumstances could
lead to further marginalization of the Palestinian issue.
Israelis, like many misguided Westerners, too often
succumb to counterproductive hyper-activism. Doing almost nothing might
bring about better results than activating unilateral plans of all
kinds.
Efraim Inbar is director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, a political studies professor at Bar-Ilan University, and a fellow at the Middle East Forum.
No comments:
Post a Comment