No trust in Abbas

t is now a well-grounded fact that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is not interested in a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict • All sides want the peace talks to continue, but also know that they will not lead to anything.

Shlomo Cesana

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a past meeting in Washington | Photo credit: AP

When a senior official very close to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was asked this week to give the reason why the talks with the Palestinians collapsed -- for the time being, at least -- he began to recount a decisive meeting that the prime minister held with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas approximately five years ago.

According to the high-ranking official, Netanyahu offered Abbas the option of holding marathon talks, face to face, "until we reach an agreement." Netanyahu looked Abbas in the eye and said, "I am serious." But, according to the source, Abbas said he was willing to begin a process, but not to reach the end of the conflict and the end of demands. The high-ranking official hit the opinion of many on the mark: Abbas is not interested in a solution. If that was once a cautious assessment, it is now a well-grounded fact. The trust of the prime minister and the rest of the high-ranking officials in Abbas and his establishment is close to zero.

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It is impossible to examine the ongoing crisis this week without looking backward. In 2009, during his second term in office, Netanyahu said in the Bar-Ilan speech that he was willing to implement the two-state solution, moved toward a construction freeze in the settlements, released terrorists, ratified the principle of land swaps and sketched the borders of the Palestinian state. From this, one might have concluded that he had also agreed to concessions deep inside the Jordan Valley region and in isolated communities on the mountain strip.

And Abbas? He kept to his positions, stating that he was faithful mainly to the bottom line: the establishment of a Palestinian state with land swaps, the division of Jerusalem, with no concessions regarding the refugees or recognition of the State of Israel as the home for the Jewish people.

Despite his stubborn refusal, if that is so, Abbas is the big winner of the past week. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry blamed Israel for the talks' failure. Even if he did not mean it, and even if the officials of the State Department hurried to repair the damage, it is obvious to everyone that the damage has already been done. While Kerry knows that Abbas is not the most faithful party to the peace process, he views Israel as the stronger country and the one able to bring about change, but refuses to close a deal.

Kerry said that Netanyahu had not fulfilled his commitments or followed through on the government's decision to release the 26 prisoners in the fourth installment. So Abbas can feel completely free to embark on the next step, from which there is no way back -- a request to join 15 international U.N. conventions.

Abbas arrived in Cairo this past Wednesday and updated the members of the Arab League on the new option that had been created: 150 international organizations and groups in the U.N. that could be joined. If Israel should stop transferring tax revenues or the United States should stop its support, the Arab League will serve as a safety net. To this stormy atmosphere should be added the fact that on the same day, Israel issued a tender for 708 housing units in Jerusalem's Gilo neighborhood, a fact that pained the Palestinians. Their usual statement to the Americans about construction over the Green Line and in Jerusalem is: "It is an unhelpful act."

According to the Americans, Netanyahu pulled the political rope a bit too much in the wake of internal political constraints within the Likud and Habayit Hayehudi. He decided not to carry out the fourth installment as long as there was no Palestinian commitment to continue the talks. Economy and Trade Minister Naftali Bennett, the chairman of Habayit Hayehudi, likened Abbas this week to a merchant who runs off with the goods that he was supposed to provide, but demands the final payment. Israeli officials explain that Kerry was actually the one who was supposed to make sure that the talks would continue. But Kerry failed, and in his frustration, he looked for someone to blame.

Despite his failure, Kerry conceptualized the crisis situation properly: the parties could be led to water, but could not be made to drink. And maybe that is the whole story. In Jerusalem and Ramallah, the level of trust in the other side is zero, but the sides continue to try to gain time. Not because anyone expects developments or an agreement, but to have quiet and maintain the current situation.

What Lieberman wants

Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon loves his job. One can see on his face how much he enjoys it. He visits army bases or ground maneuvers every week. Ya'alon did something new this week, and called for the abandonment of the conception that we must continue the talks with the Palestinians. "I am not a prophet of doom. I am a realist," he said. "Unfortunately, I find myself saying 'I told you so' again and again. For eight months, Abu Mazen [Abbas] has been saying that he has no intention of recognizing Israel as the Jewish people's national home, giving up the right of return or holding talks about the end of the conflict and the end of the demands.

"That is why I have been shouting for 20 years that every time the Palestinians need to make decisions, they run away and try to blame us. On the festival of liberation, we need to liberate ourselves from the intellectual slavery of irrelevant concepts about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and understand the essence of the conflict, and deal with it accordingly."

A situation assessment regarding how to act during the later talks took place at the White House on Wednesday. U.S. President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden attended. After the meeting, Kerry met with Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, who was visiting New York and Washington. Lieberman did not change his mind about Abbas either, and like Ya'alon, he spoke his mind freely. "We need to tell the truth: the Palestinians in general and Abu Mazen in particular are not interested in reaching an agreement with us."

And diplomatic and political circles in Jerusalem wonder what Lieberman really wants after he announced that a Russian-speaking prime minister was a realistic option. But regarding Justice Minister Tzipi Livni, the head of the Israeli negotiating team, there is no question about the political turmoil. Everyone is in complete agreement that she, like Abbas, is interested in buying time by holding profound talks on the subject "until the conditions are right."

What Livni and Lieberman have in common is that, according to all the polls, if elections were to be held now, both would win a similar number of seats -- about five. Now, as the failure of the talks seems closer than ever, Livni raises the possibility once more of "direct talks between the leaders," which was raised in former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's government as well. Livni was there, too. Then, as now, "the process did not come to fruition." And opposite all of them is Habayit Hayehudi, announcing with an ongoing smile: We came to work and to build, and as long as the building goes on, the sky is the limit.