Can
it be more obvious? Thirteen Syrian rebel groups–including the most
important in Aleppo and Damascus–demand an Islamist state in Syria and
say they don’t care what the official rebel, U.S.-backed politicians
say.
By the way, only one of these groups is an al-Qaida group, Jabhat al-Nusra. There is also the large Salafi Islamist group, Harakat Ahrar al-Sham al-Islamiya. The others include the powerful Liwa al-Tawhid (Aleppo) and Liwa al-Islam. Both groups operated as part of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) umbrella.
What
about the U.S-backed Free Syrian Army? As the GLORIA Center’s Syria
expert Dr. Jonathan Spyer put it: “This is much of the Free Syrian
Army.”
The
Syrian rebel statement, distancing these militias from the FSA’s
leadership said, “These forces call on all military and civilian groups
to unite in a clear Islamic context that… is based on sharia (Islamic)
law, making it the sole source of legislation”. “The [Syrian] National
Coalition and the proposed government under Ahmad Tomeh [the Obama
Administration- supported “moderate” Muslim Brotherhood puppet who
wields little power] does not represent us, nor do we recognize it,”
said 13 of Syria’s most powerful Islamist rebel groups.
In
other words the rebels themselves deny they are “moderates”. Note that
when the United States tried to get the Syrian rebels to denounce
al-Qaida over a year ago they all refused. They would rather alienate
America than al-Qaida.
A
question that comes up is would not the people of Syria suffer? The
tragic truth is that they will suffer either way. Of course, there will
be ethnic massacres. First, the Sunni Muslims will be slain; then the
Christians, Druze, Kurds, Shi’ites, and Alawites will be massacred. How
many hundreds of refugees will Arab and Western countries absorb?
The
current civil war will not be the last war. There will be a civil war
between the victorious partners, at least the Brotherhood-types and
al-Qaida, and perhaps the Salafists. Then there will be a war between
the Sunni Islamists (al Qaida and Brotherhood-types) and the Kurds.
There has already been fighting between al-Qaida style organizations and
other Sunni Islamist rebels against the Kurds. Intra-Sunni Islamist rebel infighting is increasingly occurring. Al-Qaida groups have also fought one another and other rebel groups.
War
without end, amen. Syria will be turned into a smoking ruin for a
generation, perhaps 20 percent of the population will flee. This is no
war of liberation but a tragedy.
Will
America give hundreds of millions to the Syrian economy? Will it train
and reform the Syrian Islamist army? Will it advise the Brotherhood
against al-Qaida while ignoring ethnic massacres?
But
yes the greater strategic danger by an edge is Iran. Yet why would
America be expected to handle this danger, an America that is taking the
wrong side in Egypt? Better to keep Washington away from being a
rent-an-army for the Arab League in direct engagement in Syria.
There is, however, another factor. There are now boots on the ground of Iranian troops in Syria.
You think Russia will take care of that as well? Actually, the regime
is in long-range trouble. It is running out of reliable soldiers to
fight for it. Iranians and their Shi’ite Islamist proxies will predictably make up for these numbers.
These are the unpalatable choices. That’s why President Obama has now changed a regulation prohibiting U.S. aid from being paid to terrorists, believe it or not.
That doesn’t mean we should want the regime to win. It is certainly in
U.S strategic interests for the rebels to prevail. But have no doubt
that when they do defeat the regime, the rebels will blame the United
States and Israel–though they opposed the regime and helped the rebel
side–as well as Iran, Russia, and Hizballah for their problems. They
will fight against peace, be willing to stage anti-American terrorism,
and be against U.S interests. This could be justified by the defeat for
Iran but don’t be over-enthusiastic.
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