No one from the upper military
echelon of Israel is whispering in my ear, but the signs seem fairly
unmistakable.
Yesterday, Israeli Ambassador to
the UN Ron Prosor told the Security Council:
"The Iranian
nuclear program continues to advance at the speed of an express train," Prosor
said. "The international community's efforts to stop them are moving at the pace
of the local train, pausing at every stop for some nations to get off and
on."
An apt analogy, I
thought.
While Secretary
of Defense Moshe Ya'alon told Canadian Chief of Staff Gen. Thomas J.
Lawson.:
"The diplomatic
channel is not bringing the Iranian nuclear program to a halt and the economic
sanctions have yet to stop the centrifuges. A viable military option is
required, even if it is the last resort."
I don't know how
the signals they are putting out could be much clearer.
If something is
going to happen, it will have to be this year -- if not in the next few
months. Iran is edging close to its nuclear goal.
~~~~~~~~~~
What I hasten to
point out, again, is that -- minus those 30,000 pound bunker busters that
the US will not even consider selling to us (along with means of delivery)
-- Israel does not have the capacity to take out Iran's nuclear
program in its entirety.
We do, according
to the best sources I have, possess the ability to set it back three to five
years. What is more, there are other ways to disable Iran seriously --
ways in which Israel does have the capacity to act.
~~~~~~~~~~
As the time frame
is of enormous importance, I continue to wonder if Israel will secure delivery
of the new armaments that the US has just agreed to sell us in time for them to
be of use in an attack on Iran. Could be that we'll delay to the last
moment, awaiting that delivery, or, conversely that we'll act without that
equipment. We are purchasing new re-fueling planes, for example, but already
possess re-fueling planes, perhaps not as advanced but perhaps sufficient to the
day; just as we already possess the capacity to take down radar, even if we are
now being sold a better system of anti-radar missiles.
~~~~~~~~~~
It is, further,
the case that some of the equipment we will now purchase from the US is almost
certainly intended for action against our neighbors and not far-off
Iran. I have in mind in particular the V-22 Osprey aircraft, which is
designed as a troop carrier. Ground war will be the order of the day, for
example, in Lebanon, when we battle Hezbollah, but not in Iran.
~~~~~~~~~~
Syria. I am watching a
diplomatic dance that at one and the same time comes as no surprise to me and
yet astounds me. I wrote two days ago about the fact that the head of IDF Military Intelligence, Research Branch, Brig. Gen. ltay Baron, said that Assad's troops have used lethal chemical weapons.
But the US does not know... Says Secretary of Defense Hagel:
"Suspicions are
one thing. Evidence is another. I think we have to be very careful
here before we make any conclusions, draw any conclusions, based on real
intelligence.
He denied that he
was questioning the validity of the intelligence of other countries. Other
countries? Israel.
What was
important, insisted Hagel, is that "the United States relies on its own
intelligence — and must."
President Obama
has said that Assad's use of chemical weapons would be a game changer. Now
he has put out a statement saying that intelligence assessments (even by the US)
are not enough. What he wants is "credible and corroborated
facts." This is the Obama -- who has repeatedly shown an
extreme reluctance to act -- we've come to know over the last four
years. He'd like to delay "knowing" what's going on there as long as
possible. No need for the US to act hastily, is there?
~~~~~~~~~~
As if matters in
Syria are not already bad enough, we have this additional news about Europeans
going to fight there (emphasis added):
"Gilles de Kerchove [the EU's anti-terror chief] estimated the number in
Syria at about 500."Intelligence agencies are concerned some could join groups linked to al-Qaeda and later return to Europe to launch terrorist attacks.
"The UK, Ireland and France are among the EU countries estimated to have the highest numbers of fighters in Syria.
"'Not all of them are radical when they leave,
but most likely many of them will be radicalized there, will be
trained,' Mr. de Kerchove told the BBC.
"And as we've seen this might lead to a serious threat when
they get back.""Across Europe, intelligence agencies have stepped up investigations, says the BBC's Europe correspondent Duncan Crawford.
"In Britain and Belgium they have increased efforts to track how people are recruited.
"In the Netherlands, officials have raised the terror threat level there to "substantial" - partly over concerns about radicalized citizens returning from Syria."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22275456
Alarming in any event. But what I find interesting is that there is no mention in this BBC report of the background of the" Europeans" who are going to fight in Syria.
Any one want to take a guess?
~~~~~~~~~~
Oh joy. Oh
goody. There has been talk about this before and now here we have it
again:
The US is
thinking about convening a Mid-east summit in June in Washington, at which
President Obama, PM Netanyahu, purported president Abbas and King
Abdullah would participate. Reportedly, Egypt, Turkey and some Arab
nations might also be invited to participate.
And -- horror of
horrors -- "the Administration is said to be contemplating a letter of
invitation or 'terms of reference' for the summit that will include the 2002
Arab Peace Initiative." That initiative is a plan for Israel's
destruction.
The keyword here
is "contemplating" -- according to the "well-placed US sources" cited, the
decision has not been made: "The Administration...has yet to decide whether it
will convene the summit in any case, or only if Kerry achieves a breakthrough
that will allow a resumption of peace talks."
Kerry had better
watch it or he's going to end up looking like a fool again. But I suspect
that's his default position.
Kerry is
much more eager to get "peace talks" going than the president: "Kerry, the
source added, is 'working night and day' to get the peace process
moving."
Kerry discussed
this plan with Abbas and the Turkish and Egyptian foreign ministers when he was
in Turkey recently. Obama will be talking to King Abdullah about it tomorrow,
when he visits the White House, and Turkish PM Erdogan, when he visits in
May.
Important to keep
in mind that the source here is Haaretz, which is always delighted to
promote a "peace process."
~~~~~~~~~~
What we can be
certain of is that PA officials will be dragging their feet.
Writes Avi Issacharoff (emphasis added):
“'Forget about
plan B, there is no plan B,' a Palestinian official told me during a Sunday
visit to Ramallah. 'If you think they [Abbas and the Palestinian
leadership] know what to do after Kerry’s attempt to renew the
negotiations, you’re wrong.'"
Kerry has now met
with Abbas in Istanbul, Riyadh, Amman, and
Ramallah "None of these meetings yielded noteworthy
results."
"Over one thing,
one might find a rare consensus in Ramallah: 'The question is not if
Kerry fails, but when,' a different Palestinian
official told me, in his office. According to him, the secretary of state’s ruse
to 'tempt' Abbas back to the negotiating table with economic gestures from
Israel is completely misguided."
What sort of
self-deluded dunce is Kerry (a rhetorical question), that, after four -- four!
-- unproductive meetings with Abbas he imagines he might move ahead with
negotiations?
~~~~~~~~~~
Closing with very
good news -- or as good as it can be given the context:
On Tuesday, Waal
al-Arjeh, who had been found guilty of the murder of Asher Palmer and his infant
son, Yonatan, was sentenced by the Ofer military court to two life sentences
plus 58 years. From a moving car, Al-Arjeh had hurled heavy rocks at
the windshield of the Palmer car with intent to kill. Palmer lost
control of the car after he was hit by the rocks; he and his baby son died when
the car over-turned on an embankment.
This sentence --
a legal victory -- sets a precedent. It is hoped that it will also serve as
a deterrent to others contemplating similar terrorism. But nothing brings back
those who were killed.
Michael Palmer,
father and grandfather of the victims, has had the courage to sit through the
entire agonizing and lengthy trial. After he heard the sentence
pronounced, he said, "Today justice was done, This was the hardest year and a
half of my life."
Credit: JOANNA PARASZCZUK
~~~~~~~~~~~
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Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner,
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