In the midst of so much that is
ugly, it is a great pleasure to report this: Little Zakkai will be going
home today. On Friday, his parents wrote: "Zakkai has impressed
the medical staff and us with another miraculous recovery from surgery (two this
time!). Thank God...
"In fact, he's doing so well that
we are being discharged already, ahead of schedule."
"Thank God" says it all. The
capacity of this young body to rally and heal is amazing.
~~~~~~~~~~
Now if only the world could rally
and heal. But there is precious little sign of this. Anything
but...
While the international community
dithers and dallies -- still seeking "negotiations" with Iran -- that Islamist
republic is rushing towards nuclear capability.
According to the Sunday
Times (London), Mohsen Fakhrizadeh-Mahabadi, believed to be the head of
Iran's secret nuclear weapons program, was present in North Korea last week when
critical weapons tests were run. This is particularly noteworthy because
Fakhrizadeh-Mahabadi is said to be reluctant to leave Iranian soil out of fear
that the Mossad might get him.
What is being pursued by the
Iranians is a nuclear warhead compact enough to be fitted to the ballistic
missiles in its possession. And the device the N. Koreans detonated
is a step in that direction. A Japanese source cited reportedly said
(emphasis added):
"The atomic bomb appears
to have been made compact enough to be placed on a
missile."
If this doesn't send chills
through you, you're just not paying attention.
~~~~~~~~~~
Experts in the field of nuclear
weaponry have been suggesting for some time now that Iran may be further
along in its development of such weapons than is apparent because of
cooperation with North Korea.
Iran’s Shahab-3 long-range missile
is based on the North Korean Nodong-1. And Iranian agents were said to
be present in December 2012, when North Korea tested
its missiles.
~~~~~~~~~~
Where does all of this leave us
with regard to discussions on Iran that will take place
between Prime Minister Netanyahu and President
Obama during the latter's visit to Israel in March? We are
being told that it is Obama's goal to convince Netanyahu that he will take care
of matters -- acting to prevent a nuclear Iran, and that Netanyahu should trust
him.
Let us put aside for a moment the
issue of whether Obama's word can be trusted. There has been a serious and
real difference of opinion between the Israeli and American heads of
state regarding when action would have to be taken.
When PM Netanyahu spoke at
the UN last September, he had that diagram and drew his red line. It had
to do with development of the nuclear bomb itself, and Netanyahu's
position was that Iran had to be stopped by the time it was 90 percent
along the path of having sufficient weapons-grade material.
(This has been interpreted
as being the point
at which Iran has amassed enough uranium, purified to a level of 20
percent, that could quickly be enriched further -- i.e., to 90% -- and be used
to produce an atomic bomb.)
~~~~~~~~~~
The US position has been that it
is only necessary to stop Iran when it is about to connect an atomic bomb
to a detonating device or delivery system, presumably a missile (but possibly a
device to be placed in the container of a cargo ship or
elsewhere). If Iran were stopped from delivering or detonating that
atomic weapon, that is what would matter.
Absolutely not the case, argued
Netanyahu:
"[Enriching enough uranium
for a bomb] requires thousands of centrifuges spinning in tandem in big - very
big - industrial plants. Those uranium plants are visible, and they're still
vulnerable.
In contrast, Iran could produce the
nuclear detonator - the fuse - in a lot less time, maybe under a year, maybe
only a few months. The detonator can be made in a small workshop the size of a
classroom. It may be very difficult to find and target that workshop, especially
in Iran. That's a country that's bigger than France, Germany, Italy and Britain
combined."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/27/us-un-assembly-israel-text-idUSBRE88Q1RR20120927
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/27/us-un-assembly-israel-text-idUSBRE88Q1RR20120927
~~~~~~~~~~
Netanyahu's argument was always on
the mark, even if Obama, and the world more generally paid him no heed.
But now? Now that we know
that Iran is further ahead than had been imagined because of cooperation with
North Korea? Now that we see it clear: that there's no way to "detect"
when Iran will have a delivery system or detonator because of that cooperation
with N. Korea?
Has Obama begun to see things
differently? Will Netanyahu be able to convince him to take a new
approach?
~~~~~~~~~~
Consider just how sick the world
is: ISRAEL is the only nation in the world that the Iranians
fear. Imagine that. An nuclear scientist afraid to leave
Iran because of the Mossad. Repeatedly I've read that Iranian
leaders believe that Israel might bomb them. Only Israel, in all the
world.
And so, I continue to salute PM
Netanyahu -- for all the quarrels I may have with him in other regards -- for
his clear vision and his courage in bringing this issue to the international
community.
Because of enhanced technology
that the Iranians have begun using, the time has been reduced for reaching
the Red Line that Netanyahu spelled out last September. If Israel is to
hit Iran, it will have to be soon. Even at the UN, he had said the Red
Line would likely be reached by spring or summer of 2013.
And so, nu?
~~~~~~~~~~
I reiterate here what I've said
many times: I have no inside track on what will happen (if even the prime
minister is certain right now what will happen). I write based on
my research of public information, and according to my intuitive sense of
what is implied by various statements and policy decisions made by our
leaders.
It has been my understanding for
years that we have the capacity to weaken, although not totally eliminate,
Iran's nuclear development capacity -- perhaps setting back their program three
to five years. As recently as September there were still reports that we
have "an attainable military option that can be implemented
independently, without American assistance."
In recent weeks, I've been seeing
strength exhibited by our government -- this with regard to Syria in
particular. I noted that Netanyahu has declared unequivocally that Iran
must be stopped and that Barak said, "We mean what we say." I see a
genuine determination to guard the security of Israel.
~~~~~~~~~~
With all of this, however, there
is a serious proviso. Iran is burying its nuclear manufacturing equipment
underground in a way that makes its accessibility limited. Note that last
September Netanyahu said the uranium plants were "still vulnerable."
That's less the case today than it was when he said it. And so the Red
Line for Israel's ability to effectively hit Iran may be different
from the Red Line that Netanyahu brought to the international community with
intention of moving the US on the issue.
Bottom line: Israel has
bunker-buster bombs, including some sold to us by the US that weigh in at
5,000 pounds. But none would penetrate the huge volume of
concrete utilized by Iran in building its nuclear manufacturing
bunkers.
It is the US that possesses the
newly developed GPS-guided, 30,000 pound bunker-buster bombs -- Massive
Ordnance Penetrators nicknamed Big BLU -- that would do the job, and the
stealth-bomber refitted B-2s that would be capable of deploying the
bombs.
Credit:
rt.com
The US could take out the Iranian
nuclear project. The US is the one that should be doing
it.
~~~~~~~~~~
Perhaps the Israeli delay in
acting is connected to attempts, still, to get the US on board.
Not that the US would take the lead in attacking, but perhaps would give the nod
and then provide logistical back-up, or sell Israel pertinent equipment.
Certainly Israel is not going to
act before Netanyahu has those talks with Obama.
This should not be forgotten,
however: Part of the problem in giving Obama more time to see if diplomatic
efforts plus sanctions can work (something Netanyahu knows is nonsense) is that
if Israel allows too much time, we'll be past the red line with regard to our
ability to successfully attack. Then it will, by default, fall to the US to act
or not. We will have surrendered our capacity to act successfully on our
own behalf. It is a fine line that must be walked.
~~~~~~~~~~
And where is the international
community on all of this? Hey! they're moving right along.
First, since Iran says they are
enriching uranium for peaceful purposes only, P5 + 1 (Britain, China, France,
Russia, the US, plus Germany), want Iran to do more to prove that this is the
case. That's enormously constructive, don't you think?
And then -- during a meeting
scheduled for February 26th in Kazakhstan -- they said they intend to offer
easing of sanctions barring trade in gold and other precious metals in return
for Iran taking steps to shut down Fordow. (Taking steps?) This is no more
than a partial re-run of a demand made last year that Iran stop producing higher
grade uranium, ship stockpiles out of the country, and shut down Fordow.
According to one official cited
anonymously in the JPost, this new offer is "a way to test whether they
are serious or not."
This amazes me. That there
might still be officials who wonder about this. The name of the
Iranian game is stalling long enough to complete weapon
development.
Netanyahu, in the privacy of his
own living quarters, must bang his head against the wall on a regular
basis.
In any event, today, once
intentions to make this demand became public, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, Iran's National Security Committee
Chief, declared that Iran will never close that military
facility: "our national duty is to defend our nuclear and vital centers
against an enemy threat."
~~~~~~~~~~
But let me share here
another international concern.
Yesterday, Foreign policy chief
Catherine Ashton let it be known that the EU is following "with concern reports about the deteriorating
health condition" of four Palestinian prisoners "in Israeli detention who have
been on an extended hunger strike."
This followed an earlier
expression of concern (same word) voiced on behalf of the UN by Humanitarian
Coordinator James W. Rawley.
Gee, I can hardly think of an
issue more significant than this. But since there is so much
hoopla, let's look at the facts, which are in short supply.
~~~~~~~~~~
Of the four Palestinians, focus
is on one, Samer Issawi, who has been doing a protest fast intermittently
during the past few months, in order to secure his release.
According to the JPost,
Issawi, a member of the Popular
Front for the Liberation of Palestine, was arrested in 2002 for
terrorist-related activity (this was in the course of Operation Defensive
Shield, mounted against the terrorism of the second intifada). He was
subsequently tried and sentenced to 30 years. But in 2011, after having
served close to 10 years, he was one of the terrorists released from Israeli
prisons in exchange for Gilad Shalit.
In 2012, he was re-arrested by the
IDF for violating the terms of his release, and almost immediately began that
intermittent hunger strike.
~~~~~~~~~~
I guess he was incensed by the
fact that he was again in prison, when he thought he was home free; although in
a just world he never would have been released in the first place.
We're hardly talking about a
nice man, my friends. Or an innocent one. Or someone to whom an
injustice has been done. But he wants out, and Palestinian Arabs in prison
have determined that sometimes if they go on hunger strikes Israel will let them
out rather than endure the bad press.
And oh! does the PA milk this for
all it's worth. Poor suffering man, languishing in prison without full
rights. On the verge of dying, actually, because of that (self-inflicted)
hunger strike and horrendous Israeli neglect. I saw one pro-Palestinian
site that wailed, "Samer Issawi is like an olive tree, his head reaches the
sky."
This, then, is the man that the UN
and the EU are worried about. It's politically correct to take this
position.
For the record, Issawi is getting
medical care in prison, and does eat sometimes. Israel cannot let him die
in prison because then he would be made a martyr. I will be furious if
he's let out, however.
~~~~~~~~~~
On Friday, Palestinian Arab
demonstrations in Judea and Samaria on behalf of the release of Issawi turned
into riots. In more than one location, rocks and firebombs were thrown at
IDF soldiers. Major sites of rioting were in Beitunya, near the Ofer
security prison, at Kfar Kaddum west of Nablus (Shechem), and in the
Kalandiyah area. All in all several hundred Arabs were
involved. Smaller demonstrations were held in Jenin, Bethlehem, and
outside Efrat.
Firebombs tossed at the IDF in
order to secure Issawi's release? Under no circumstances whatsoever should
he be released.
Abbas has made the release of
all prisoners a pre-condition for coming to the table. On Friday, in
Ramallah, he declared, "We will not forget, and we will not leave you
to suffer behind the bars of the occupation."
Please note carefully that he condones all actions against "the occupation"
-- never stopping to say that those who have killed innocent civilians,
particularly women and children, cannot be excused.
~~~~~~~~~~
©
Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner,
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