"Not All Bad"

Arlene Kushner

Not by any means.

Consider, for example, the report yesterday by the JPost that, according to a top German computer consultant interviewed by phone, the Stuxnet cyberworm has set Iran's nuclear program back two years:

"This was nearly as effective as a military strike, but even better since there are no fatalities and no full-blown war. From a military perspective, this was a huge success. "It is extremely difficult to clean up installations from Stuxnet, and we know that Iran is no good in IT (information technology) security, and they are just beginning to learn what this all means."

The assumption is being made broadly that Israeli Military Intelligence was involved in developing this worm, which, because of its extraordinary complexity, would have taken years to design. The expert cited by the JPost believes more than one nation was involved -- possibly Israel and the US.

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Then we can be buoyed by the friendship of the US Congress. Yesterday a resolution was introduced in the House of Representatives by Congressman Howard Berman (D-CA), Chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee; it was passed by consensus (i.e., unanimously).

The resolution declares that the House "reaffirms its strong opposition to any attempt to establish or seek recognition of a Palestinian state outside of an agreement negotiated between Israel and the Palestinians; and urges Palestinian leaders to — (A) cease all efforts at circumventing the negotiation process, including efforts to gain recognition of a Palestinian state from other nations, and in the United Nations, and in other international forums prior to achievement of a final agreement between Israel and the Palestinians, and calls upon foreign governments not to extend such recognition..."

Full text here: http://www.aipac.org/Publications/SourceMaterialsCongressionalAction/BERMAN_148_xml.pdf

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While this is essentially a sense of Congress resolution, without teeth as it's written, there is one way in which there is indirect enforceability on the issue: The House holds the purse-strings. On Monday, Congressman Berman had said, "If they [the Palestinians] try to circumvent negotiations, they'll lose the support of a lot of people like me, and it will jeopardize their foreign aid as well."

Remember that this response is from a Democratic lame-duck House that will be replaced by a Republican-majority House in January. Berman himself will be succeed by Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL), who was formerly the committee chair and is currently the committee's Republican ranking member; she will advance an even more stringent position than Berman.

According to her spokesman, "The ranking member has long said that the US assistance to the PA should be conditioned on the PA living up to its obligations to stop violence against Israel and recognize Israel's right to exist as a democratic, Jewish state, among other things that it has demonstrably failed to live up to. These unilateral efforts serve to undermine the prospects that those obligations might finally be met."

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It goes without saying, however, that the above does not mean that all is sweetness and light.

Last night, PA officials met in Cairo with foreign ministers of member states of the Arab League, seeking endorsement of the current policy of not negotiating with Israel, directly or indirectly, until there is a full building freeze in Judea and Samaria and eastern Jerusalem.

And -- are we surprised? -- the ministers proved to be quite cooperative. The statement they put out read:

"The negotiation track between the Palestinians and Israelis is futile. There is no return to talks. Any resumption is conditioned on a serious offer that ensures the end to the Arab-Israeli conflict based on the peace process references."

My reading of "peace process references" would be compliance with the terms set out by what is referred to as the Arab League peace plan, which calls for Israel to return to the '67 armistice lines and to take in "refugees." Whether the Arabs are looking for US assurances on these issues (which is likely the case, as the US is supposed to coerce Israel), or advance Israeli commitments is not entirely clear.

Additionally, the Arab ministers want to bring the issue of Israeli "settlements" to the Security Council in order to "obtain a decision that confirms the illegal nature this activity and that would oblige Israel to stop it." The ministers' statement also urged the US not to block this decision.

See here for solid background information on the legality of settlements:

http://www.globallawforum.org/ViewMediaPerspectives.aspx?ArticleId=68

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Obama's administration is on record as being in favor of a negotiated settlement. We don't know yet if what the Arab ministers are currently proposing will actually move beyond talk (and threats) to action. But my guess at the moment is that the US would veto.

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The US commitment to negotiations, however, is nothing short of delusional. George Mitchell is here, and has met now with Netanyahu and Abbas, and then, to update him on the situation, with Egyptian president Mubarak yesterday.

Explains Mitchell, "In the days ahead, our discussions with both sides will be substantive, two-way conversations with an eye towards making real progress in the next few months on the key questions of an eventual framework agreement."

Real progress? The two sides can't even agree on what must be discussed first, and it remains entirely unclear, given the above, that the Palestinian Arabs will be participating at all.

The way I've been hearing it, Mitchell plans to discover, via separate meetings, the position of each side with regard to the core issues, and then find a way to bring the parties together.

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Just days ago, the EU, which was flirting with the idea of recognizing a Palestinian state, reached the decision that it will not be doing so now. After 27 EU foreign ministers met in Brussels, the Foreign Affairs Council released a statement reiterating "its readiness, when appropriate, to recognize a Palestinian state." There was no indication of what they believed would define the appropriate time or circumstances.

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A week ago, 26 former EU leaders -- including former EU diplomat Javier Solana, Germany’s former chancellor Helmut Schmidt, and former Irish president Mary Robinson -- issued a letter calling for boycotts and sanctions against Israel because of "settlement" construction. The letter, which was sent to current EU leaders, stated that, “Israel’s continuation of settlement activity... poses an existential threat to the prospects of establishing a sovereign, contiguous and viable Palestinian state.”

We should not really be surprised by this European response, which Foreign Ministry spokesman Yigal Palmor called “strange and harmful.”

"It is difficult to see how the call for sanctions and Israel’s isolation will promote peace, but clearly this will diminish the EU’s capability to play a constructive role in promoting peace in the region.”

At present it appears that the EU will not be acting on the recommendations in the letter.

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I have alluded numerous times to the decision of Syria to move more solidly into Iran's sphere because it is Assad's assessment that the US is weak. Now we see the same with Jordan:

King Abdullah, speaking of the importance of improving Jordanian-Iranian relations, has just accepted an invitation to visit Iran. Jordan, which once solidly leaned toward the West. In one sense this is shocking, but in another, totally comprehensible, for Jordan is terrified of Iran.

This is what Barry Rubin says about the situation:

"Why is it that suddenly the king finds this to be so imperative? Because Iran is getting stronger-and may soon have nuclear weapons-and he can't depend on the United States to protect him. This is one more signal about how 'regional moderates' feel about the current situation.

"President Barack Obama thinks he's being nice to 'Arabs' and 'Muslims.' In fact, he's being mean to America's friends. And they will do whatever is necessary to save themselves. If the United States cannot or will not protect them, they find it 'imperative' to get in good with its enemies."

http://www.gloria-center.org/gloria/2010/12/making-friends-with-the-octopus-jordan-bows-to-iran

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I do not expect Obama to change his approach. Whether he's self-destructive or deluded or obtuse does not matter.

What I most fervently do wish, however, is that the American people would finally understand what's happening here.

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© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution



see my website www.ArlenefromIsrael.info
see my website www.ArlenefromIsrael.info